BlackBook - Saturday, 27 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 27 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


CAULFIELD - Race 2

OTHER

#7 SAIGON was superb in Heat 12 on Aug 19. The returning 6yo mare stalked the ridden-out Aranath throughout the heat, looking like she was jogging on the spot until she was taken back to the inside and exploded to the front past the line. She has a first up record of 7: 2-3-0 and should head to a BM78 first up, so keep an eye on her as this was super.


WARRACKNABEAL - Race 4

OTHER

#9 SHIPSTERN looked to be a lovely moving Extreme Choice colt in his first jump out on Jul 29 and it was no different in Heat 8 on Aug 8, with the 3yo finishing behind the speedy Philoshopher in a nice bit of work up the straight. They ran nice time at 47.14s, which was above average for the morning and liked how he looked to respond when put under a little bit of pressure. He looks like he’s got good size and there is no secret that Extreme Choice is flying.


WARRACKNABEAL - Race 6

OTHER

Andrew Bobbin looks to have #6 CLAUDIA SHIVER in good order ahead of her return for the new stable. She was a quiet 3rd to Just Folk and Amish Boy in her return jump out on Jul 26 over the 900m with a gap to 4th and 5th, being stablemates Hendrika (since 2nd in 0-64 at $15 SP) and Princess Pancakes (since 2nd in 0-58 at $19 SP). Given a little break, she returned to finish 2nd in Heat 8 on Aug 15 to Lovin’ Laughs where they clocked the 2nd fastest 900m time of the morning with a big gap to 3rd. The 4yo mare is 58-rated, so a BM58 or 0-58 first up for Andrew Bobbin would be a perfect kick off point and think she can give a sight.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Caulfield, Race 2

#7 SAIGON (8) - C Waller

Low/Medium.

Her last win was in a BM78 back in December 2020 - she's had 14x runs since then, 13x of them at BM78 level without a win and she pops up in a BM90 now here. Not a stack of confidence, but she can run well and looks an E/W chance.

Can back with the Bonus Back offers on TAB & TopSport.

Warracknabeal, Race 4

#9 SHIPSTERN (12) - L & T Corstens

High.

Scratched from a Heavy track at Bendigo on Thursday in order to go around here. The barrier is a worry, but he looks quite talented and this is a very winnable race. He's giving race fitness to his main rivals (which is only really Wok Star), but he should just be too classy. Expect him to be hard to beat here.

Warracknabeal, Race 6

#6 CLAUDIA SHIVER (12) - A Bobbin

Medium.

Her latest jump out saw her finish 2nd to Lovin' Laughs with a big gap to 3rd, with that runner since 1st in a 0-64 at Bendigo against the likes of Bews and Thalursian. This mare resumes in a 0-58 and on the back of her jump outs with the form that has come from them, she can run really well here first up.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Kembla Grange, Race 2

#8 PANTONARIO (2) - G Waterhouse & A Bott

She has elite 2YO form behind Coolangatta, Fireburn and Paris Dior. Her latest trial over 1050m was very nice and we've seen the 2nd horse since run 6th and the 3rd horse since run 1st. She has barrier 2 her so expecting her to go straight to the front and be very hard to chase down.

Last Updated: 8:22am on Saturday, 27th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

679x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

963x runners | 220x winners (23%) & 265x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.59 WIN $3.08 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB