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BlackBook - Saturday, 26 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 26 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOE - Race 1

OTHER

#7 ROARING SUCCESS was having his first jump out back and it was a nice bit of work, finishing 2nd in Heat 8 over the 760m. He just went through the motions here but looks to have come back in good order. A 3yo now, we’ll follow him into another jump out before his resumption.


MOE - Race 2

OTHER

#7 IVANOV ran 7th (of 13) on debut where he was hard ridden and off the bit from the 800m mark, but okay enough to finish 4.6L off the winner. He went back to the trials here in Heat 5 on Nov 22 over the 1000m with the blinkers on where he was last on the fence and actually closed quite well into 4th place here under no jockey pressure. He might run a cheeky race second up.


MOE - Race 4

OTHER

#6 MOURN MAID showed nice gate speed to lead Heat 5 on Nov 15 quite comfortably and as Dawn County came up beside her, Tom Stockdale had a look over the shoulder before asking her for an effort where she responded, fought back and extended away over the final stages. She had a pair of jump outs back in December 2021 before being given a lengthy break, so this was an encouraging return and want to watch for another jump out for her.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 1


#7 ROARING SUCCESS (8) - P Keane

Low/Medium.

He has since had a jump out over 1000m on Nov 7 where he was 3rd behind White Russian where he beat home Jatobi (since 3rd) and Box Of Crackers (since 2nd), so he's got handy jump out form.


This race isn't anything special at all and can see him improving in his second prep following these jump outs so happy to have a bet on him, just going to ½ stake and play the SP as expecting him to get out in price.

Moe, Race 2


#7 IVANOV (5) - J Conlan

Low/Medium.

As expected, the blinkers and cross over nose band go on from the debut. He's drawn quite well with barrier 5 here as well.

Beau Mertens rode on debut but jumps off to ride the Sandhu horse, which isn't a great sign but he's been beaten by 6.1L and 11.35L, so not exactly anything special. That's the same for most of this field, there isn't much showing anything so happy to be with IVANOV here with those gear changes and his general potential improvement to come second up.


Full staking and playing late (or the SP).

Moe, Race 4


#6 MOURN MAID (6) - S Stockdale

Medium.

She has only had the 1x jump out this prep ahead of her debut and it was over only 750m, which is an obvious query, but it was a really good jump out. She was well supported in early markets too and in a race like this, she has to be the one to beat.


She showed good gate speed in her jump out so barrier 6 is perfect and think she'll be hard to beat. Keen to be with her here. Another we'll play late (or at the SP).

Last Updated: 8:50am on Saturday, 26th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1067x runners | 257x winners (24%) & 292x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.07 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 68x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 18x placings (69%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 10x wins (17%) & 20x placings (51%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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