Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 24 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
NEWCASTLE - Race 2
OTHER
Arrowfield look as though they’ve got a talented Snitzel filly in #12 ORZALA. She had a quiet Jul 26 jump out over 780m on the synthetic, sitting out the back of the field with J-Mac just cruising to the line on her out wide. It was her work in Trial 8 on Aug 19 over the 1045m that was super impressive, despite the time being the clear slowest of the morning. J-Mac stuck with the filly, getting a lovely run in behind the speed before displaying a lovely turn of foot late to win, really going on with it past the line. She was a $700k buy being out of the mare Norzita, a dual Group 1 winner of the 1600m Flight Stakes and 2000m Vinery Stud Stakes, so there will certainly be some expectations on this filly and she certainly looks to move well.
TELEGRAM CHAT
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Newcastle, Race 2 | |
#12 ORZALA (6) - J O'Shea | Low/Medium. Her trials prior to her debut were absolutely super - J-Mac rode and she just didn't handle the Heavy track, pulling up with a slow recovery. John O'Shea said she was the best 3YO filly he had in his stable, and we had a huge opinion of her prior to that debut so we can't jump off her after 1x run when she had excuses. She was a $2.70 SP fav on debut and the favourite here in LAMORLAYE was 2nd in that same race and SP'd $9. We have to give her one more chance, especially considering she had excuses and this is a very winnable race - backing ½ not and ½ at SP. |
Last Updated: 8:24am on Saturday, 24th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners:
998x runners | 234x winners (23%) & 275x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.33 WIN $3.04 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):