BlackBook - Saturday, 23 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 23 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 1

#16 DEMPSTER (12) - L & T Corstens

DEMPSTER faded in a Aug 9 straight jump out and was not flash in a Aug 20 jump out as well. Given a couple weeks let up, the blinkers went on and he went straight to the front in Heat 10 on Oct 1 and bolted in by several lengths while running the fastest time of the morning by almost one second. He wasn’t ever asked for an effort and just cruised through the motions. Probably want to see another bit of work with his past form.


After bolting in by a massive margin in an Oct 1 synthetic jump out, DEMPSTER could’ve easily done the same in Heat 10 on Oct 15 but the jockey wasn’t interested in winning at all as he pulled him up over the final 200m or so to just walk over the line but still managing to finish 2nd. He looks to be resuming gelded and with the blinkers on and is certainly travelling well enough to go close first up this preparation. Expect him to be on speed or leading too which makes an attractive betting proposition first up. Following.

OTHER

#7 BLISTERING showed talent prior to her debut at Caulfield where she led but was overran late with the winner (Gimmie Par) going on to win the Group 3 Quezette in early August. Returning here, she took out Heat 1 on Sep 14 as she led from start to finish and showed a nice kick around the bend to win comfortably, albeit over only 675m but did run a very slick time. Keen to see where she goes as John Pascoe (as the trainer and sole owner) has an opinion on her.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 3

OTHER

Clocking the fastest 800m jump out of the morning in her first bit of work back was #8 OUR HEIDI, taking out Heat 5 on Oct 12 comfortably ahead of recent maiden winner Blazerro. She debuted back in June when 2nd to the smart Ranveer and ran a nice 2nd there with a 2L gap to 3rd (who has won 2x races since). This was only her first jump out back, but the exact bit of work we wanted to see to follow her into her first up run. Hopefully another jump out first and then to the races. Following.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Yarra Valley, Race 1 - DEMPSTER (& BLISTERING)

A lot of scratchings brings this race right down. As expected, FOR REAL LIFE scratches and leaves the stablemate DEMPSTER in who was the fourth emergency with barrier 12, but now gets into the field with barrier 9 with Lachie King also taking the ride.


BLISTERING has the race fitness having led alongside Baekdu on a track that was extremely heavy. They were along the rail which was the worst part of the track. Baekdu has since ran 2nd in a MDN but 4th (Catalina Blue) went to the line with BLISTERING and has since ran 11th of 12. Will take improvement from that run as he did only have the one jump out heading into it and now gets a key gear change of the blinkers going on.


Ratings wise, BLISTERING has the best last start benchmark rating and it looks as though only DEMPSTER is the real danger with not much of the raced showing much. SHE GOES BANGO showed a little but has only had the one jump out and looks the long priced danger. Happy to have a medium bet on BLISTERING and save on DEMPSTER.


Moonee Valley, Race 1

21-10-20 Inglis Banner
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Moonee Valley, Race 3 - OUR HEIDI

Scratched from a very winnable race on Thursday to run here. This is a lot harder, but she does bring in the third best last start benchmark rating and she's only had the one career run as a 2YO... if she's come back with some improvement then she can go close to winning this. Brett Prebble on board is a big tick, he is absolutely flying and she draw's barrier 1. Think she can win this, just would've preferred a maiden (as she definitely would've won...).


Having a small play, look to make the most of the bonus back offers for finishing 2nd/3rd. Think she can run well and she's at a nice price.


Randwick, Race 1

21-10-20 World Gym Castlereagh Kirkham Plate
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Randwick, Race 3 - ABLE WILLIE

We highlighted ABLE WILLIE prior to his debut and he didn't disappoint, bolting by 2.5L and the run rating really well at -2.4 which is the third best last start benchmark rating in this race and only by 0.5... he has had another trial in between to tick the legs over and will be ready to go here. He is going to be very hard to beat.


No official play here, he's a bit short at the ~$2 but keen to follow him and see where he ends up this preparation.


OUR BETS

We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.25 units.


Yarra Valley, Race 1

BLISTERING ~ 2.00 units @ $3.00 (TopSport)

DEMPSTER ~ 0.75 units @ $3.80 (TopSport)


Moonee Valley, Race 3

OUR HEIDI ~ 0.50 units @ $7.00 (TopSport)


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