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BlackBook - Saturday, 22 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 22 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MORPHETVILLE - Race 2

MISS SUNSHINE went to the line alongside Naval Academy (since 1st by 5L) and Mount Olympus (since 3rd and then won by 7L) in a Jun 20 jump out before bolting in over 900m in a Heat 7 on Jul 3 on a very heavy track. This 2yo filly ran 3rd to The Instructor on debut and now looks to have been given the time to develop.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Morphetville, Race 2

#12 MISS SUNSHINE (4) - T & C McEvoy

Medium.

The form from jump outs doesn't get much better than Naval Academy and Mount Olympus, both winning very impressively.

This filly goes up to SA and looks like she's found the perfect race to kick off the preparation - drawn barrier 4, she'll put herself right there and the 1000m is the perfect distance.


Think she'll run super and be hard to beat - looking to back her at $2+.

Caulfield, Race 1

#10 WOLFY (9) - N Ryan

Low/Medium.

He had a quiet first jump out when last but he was super in his latest on Jul 10. Unsure why we didn’t mention him in our reviews but better late than never… he finds a solid race on debut here but he can certainly run well and go very close. Happy to have a bet on him, but will be betting for a ½ collect.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#12 TIFFANY VALENTINE (15) - P Stokes

BlackBook jump out comments:

TIFFANY VALENTINE showed a stack of speed over the 1000m in Heat 2 on Jul 4, leading them up in the early stages and throughout as she won nicely in the end with a big gap back to 3rd. She clocked 58.69s here, the second fastest overall time we have recorded behind only Mileva, so she was flying here and it’s not easy to run this time. She was good in her first jump out as well having made the switch to the Stokes yard from Andrew Clarken in SA where she had the one unlucky run back in January. Keep a close eye on her first up this prep, she’s got a stack of speed.

Last Updated: 8:32am AEDT on Saturday, 22nd July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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