BlackBook - Saturday, 20 May 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 20 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WARRACKNABEAL - Race 2
Super bit of work from ALBANIAN THUNDER in Heat 10 on Feb 23. Unlike her first jump out on Feb 9 where she was ridden with no urgency and just cruised out the back, she was allowed to go forward and find the front where she then kicked away around the bend to open up a huge margin, bolting in over the 800m in the second fastest time of the morning, only slower than English Riviera. She started $21 SP on debut and ran 6th of 6 runners on a Heavy(9) track at Cranbourne, so we might get a nice price this prep as she looks to be in really nice order ahead of her return.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Warracknabeal, Race 2
#5 ALBANIAN THUNDER (7) - P Koumis
We were on first up where she started a $3.30 SP favourite but the jockey (a 4kg claiming apprentice) became unbalanced and lost the use of her off-side iron, so she was literally running with no steering for the whole race, a clear forget run.
She had a break to tidy up some manners including a very quiet JO since just to tick the stewards boxes and get back to the races.
She gets an experienced rider on board in L.King and while this is a spec bet based on her jump outs back in Feb, if she runs to those then she is well over the odds.
Low confidence, but we can't let her go around without anything on and the $21 available is much better than the $3.30 first up, so we can bet and don't need much on to collect.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Warracknabeal, Race 2
#11 RAVALLI (4) - L & T Cortstens
BlackBook jump out comments:
Two wins now for RAVALLI as he kicked away to win Heat 4 on May 9 by 5L in the fastest time of the morning across the 2yo heats over 850m. He showed superior gate speed here to get to an easy lead in the early stages and it was much of the same into the straight where he then put up a margin as he was put under pressure and opened up that big margin. He did similar in his Apr 21 jump out at Flemington, leading throughout to record a soft win. The 2yo gelded son of Ilovethiscity was dominate here and can run well on debut.
Last Updated: 9:02am AEDT on Saturday, 20th May 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):