Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 20 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
NEWCASTLE - Race 3
OTHER
Though #15 ANGEL SHE AIN’T did a super job to check off heels and close over the top to win Trial 15 on Jul 27. The 3yo filly was under a strong hold from Aaron Bullock and forced to take a sit behind the two leaders, with no room to move until she peeled out at the ~200m mark and then cruised over the top of them, both of whom were ridden a lot harder but are also both unraced, so not much quality. She was a very disappointing 12th of 13 on debut, hanging out around the bend before being pulled up - she didn’t handle it at all. This trial was an improvement and she may be worth a small spec second up.
NEWCASTLE - Race 6
OTHER
#7 ANG POW’s win in Trial 7 on Jul 29 was clearly the top performance from these trials, winning over 900m in the fastest time of the morning at 54.61s. The way in which he won was certainly the most impressive part, sitting at the back of the field and powering home in the straight under minimal pressure from Rachel King to run straight past the Group 3 placed Yes Baby Yes. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Flying Artie gelding feature over the spring.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Happy to steer clear of VIC today with the Heavy10 tracks at Wangaratta and Moonee Valley so we'll just look to have the 2x plays on our runners at Newcastle.
​Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Newcastle, Race 3 | ​ |
#15 ANGEL SHE AIN'T (5) - A Bennett | Low/Medium. ​The debut run has to be a clear forgive based on how good the trial (since) was and the amount of gear changes she gets here - blinkers (near side), cross-over nose band and lugging bit all go on for the first time. She's the first emergency but if she gets a run, she'll have every chance from barrier 5. If she runs to her trial, she should improve now 2UP. We were happy to have a bet yesterday at the $23/$4.60 & $29/$5.50 available and she's still a solid E/W price this morning that we can play. Dashing Legend hard to beat, but she can run well. |
Newcastle, Race 6 | ​ |
#7 ANG POW (9) - R & W Freedman | Medium. He could not have trialled any better ahead of his return + he's had tie-back surgery, which might explain his short prep last time in. He's started odds on in all four of his career wins, so the ~$2.50 we're getting this morning looks attractive and happy to be playing at that price. |
Last Updated: 8:54am on Saturday, 20th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
'Other' Runners:
952x runners | 217x winners (23%) & 263x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.62 WIN $3.09 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):