BlackBook - Saturday, 2 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 2 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MURTOA - Race 2

#4 DANDY CLASSIC (10) - P Preusker

Really impressive by DANDY CLASSIC with the 4yo mare jumping well to lead them to the bend in Heat 8 on Sep 2 before being given a push at the top of the straight and just putting them away to win by several lengths, hitting the line super hard. Only her first jump out back with a very encouraging bit of work, so hoping to see this replicated in another jump out.

Liked the way DANDY CLASSIC moved and travelled in Heat 13 on Sep 21, this time over 1000m following his big 850m win a few weeks ago. He travelled extremely wide throughout here but still hit the line well under a hold. Happy to following this 4yo mare into her first up run.


MURTOA - Race 3

OTHER

#14 MR SATELLITE is going to be one at huge odds that might be worth a spec. Won a Sep 15 Wangaratta jump out well, albeit beating nothing with any form before winning Heat 5 on Sep 22 quite comfortably ahead of Aphotic (who has 4 career wins) and gapping 3rd. Low confidence, but will be a big price first up.


NEWCASTLE - Race 2

OTHER

#5 I AM GERONIMO has been gelded and after three jump outs on Aug 27, Sep 10 (behind Swats That and Probabeel) and now Heat 3 on Sep 17 (orange and black checks), he looks ready to head back to the races. He was heavily restrained in this heat and forced to take a sit for the majority of the jump out until the straight where he was brought to the outside and really hit the line hard as he went over the top of some better than maiden grade gallopers.


FLEMINGTON - Race 1
21-10-02 Darley Maribyrnong Trial Stakes
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Download PDF • 1.45MB

FLEMINGTON - Race 5

OTHER

#11 MIGHTY HERCULES is another from Heat 4 on Sep 20 that is worth putting on the watch list. Won a Jul 6 jump out when hard held on a heavy track. Given a let up, the 3yo colt was again hard as he went to line with no urgency (but still well) to finish 2nd. Nice bit of work in his return, hoping to see another but of work to get a real gauge.


RANDWICK - Race 2
21-10-02 Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes
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Download PDF • 1.45MB

RANDWICK - Race 3
21-10-02 Arrowfield Breeders' Plate
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Download PDF • 1.46MB
 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Murtoa, Race 2 - DANDY CLASSIC

Thought the jump outs were really good and she should be forward enough here to go well, but we have a query on the 1200m being short of her best. She kicked off at 1300m on debut and ended up racing over 1850m so expect her to get over further, especially being by Dandio.


This is a winnable race - happy to have a small bet at the ~$10 available.


Murtoa, Race 3 - MR SATELLITE

MR SATELLITE makes the field as the second emergency and is drawn really well with barrier 4 after some nice jump outs. Jamie Gibbons is Dwayne Reid's third most used jockey with 19 starts, the issue is those 19 starts have resulted in 0 wins and 0 placings. He's a smokey here in a winnable race though.


Happy to have a small spec at a big price - just waiting until closer to the jump, don't think he'll get a stack of market support so happy to wait for the drift and then back - look at backing at the Betfair SP or using Top Fluc on TopSport.


Newcastle, Race 1 - MONEY FROM THE SKY

Adding this colt as an 'Other' Blackbook runner - our trials notes on him from this week are as follows:

Sep 27 (Hawkesbury) - they tried to get into a race over the weekend but he didn’t make the field, having to jump out here instead over 1250m - his latest run has to be too bad to be true, despite starting close to $2 - this was a nice jump out in between runs - follow third up, he’s got talent and will be better over further - doubt he’ll be a maiden for much longer.


He pops up here third up in a CL1 over 1600m, as opposed to a maiden, but think that suits better as all the runners are well exposed. As a result, think he just wins this.

Hopefully we're on at a better price than the $1.60 available now. We'd expect him to start sub-$1.50 so monitor the price in case he drifts, or one for multi's if he's too short for you.


Newcastle, Race 2 - I AM GERONIMO

Scratched from a race in VIC the other day and heads up to NSW to debut. He has been jumping out well in VIC but there are a few here that have jumped out well in NSW - it's hard to tie in and weigh up the jump out / trial form.


Wouldn't surprise to see him win, but we're going to let him go around without any bets on. Just not enough confidence to be playing in this race.


Flemington, Race 5 - MIGHTY HERCULES

Scratched from a much easier race at Moe on Thursday (being a country maiden) to run here on debut. Going to take some performance to beat some very talented gallopers that have well exposed form, especially on debut.


In saying that, he's a massive price ($151 currently) and can maybe have a spec in case the impossible does happen. Don't think he wins, but if he gets out to $201+ late (which we think is possible), then we can have literally $1-$2 on him.


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