Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 17 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BENALLA - Race 2
OTHER
You wouldn’t know #4 JUDICIARY is an 8-start maiden with only 1x career placing based on his work in Heat 10 on Nov 21. The 4yo Sebring gelding sat quietly to the rear of the field before closing really well while put under only minimal pressure, running past Bella Sorellina quite easily as he took ground off the leader in Toronasaurus Rex. He got out over 2000m at the end of last prep, so it’s very encouraging to see him doing some nice work over 800m and in only his first jump out back.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Benalla, Race 2 | |
#4 JUDICIARY (4) - P Keane | Low/Medium. He has since had a jump out on Dec 5 over 1000m and although technically finishing 6th of 8, he actually had no room late after being pushed out and responding so the jockey had to sit quiet on him & let him drop back. Drawn beautifully here, he can run a huge race first up and happy to be with him. Playing ½ now at the $6+ and ½ at the SP. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Randwick, Race 1 #7 LAZZAGO (7) - C Waller | BlackBook trial comments: Quite liked LAZZAGO from her first trial on Nov 29 on Canterbury where she settled a clear last and closed super into 3rd place in Trial 9 on Dec 8. She was back at the trials, this time at Rosehill where she settled a lot closer in the one out one back position before again showing that nice closing speed to get up and win, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. A daughter of Capitalist, she was a $460k purchase and looks to move well. No bet recommended. |
Flemington, Race 2 #9 DAZZLING LUCY (2) - T Noonan | BlackBook jump out comments: DAZZLING LUCY closed superbly to win Heat 7 on Dec 8 under minimal jockey pressure, holding off Kentucky Casanova and clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process. She’s a 66-rated 4yo mare so heading to a BM64 first up would be an ideal scenario. No bet recommended. |
Newcastle, Race 4 #9 COMPETITION (15) - J Cummings | BlackBook trial comments: COMPETITON was super in Trial 2 on Dec 5 over the 1175m. He jumped well, but Nash took him to a clear last and was easily 15L off the leader but once he angled out into the middle of the track, he closed superbly to only go down by 2.06L and he did so under no jockey pressure. Keep an eye out for the gear changes for when he heads back to the races cause this was quite a good trial. No bet recommended. |
Colac, Race 1 #9 VALLENCOURT (2) - M Shepherdson | BlackBook jump out comments: VALLENCOURT has been keeping it simple at the jump outs, jumping and leading throughout to win both her Nov 23 jump out and Heat 2 on Dec 7. Will be a query on her being very one dimensional in that she does just lead and have the one pace, hence the jump out wins, but going to keep an eye on her to see if she could be worth a spec first up. No bet recommended. |
Last Updated: 9:30am on Saturday, 17th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1100x runners | 267x winners (24%) & 301x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.21 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 42x runners | 25x wins (60%) & 11x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 34x wins (43%) & 20x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 75x runners | 15x wins (20%) & 24x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):