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BlackBook - Saturday, 16 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 16 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 2

OTHER

Want to follow #12 TOROLINA, who finished 3rd in Heat 4 on Sep 20. The 3yo filly was away slowly, dropping back to last but gathered speed to pick up along the rail and went to the line casually untouched. Thought she closed well and if she didn’t miss the kick, she would’ve gone close to winning this heat which was the fastest of the morning. Could be a sneaky at big odds.


AVOCA - Race 3

OTHER

His win in Heat 1 on Oct 12 marked five jump outs for #2 I AM NEWS, continually showing ability but not sure what to make of him having so many jump outs and them all 1-2 weeks apart. Going to keep him in mind as his first up run last prep on debut was really good at Sandown, he might be capable of something similar first up here which would see him go very close to winning any maiden. He certainly won’t be short of fitness…

 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Bendigo, Race 1

21-16-09 Bendigo Maiden Plate
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Bendigo, Race 2 - TOROLINA

Few horses in this race who are arguably better than maiden grade but just haven't quite got the job done yet. RAPID RUBY was 2nd to Extreme Warrior on debut and we saw what he did at Caulfield on Wednesday... he's now the favourite for the Group 1 Coolmore and she was 4L off him. We were on JOSEYLIN last start and she was just beaten - her maiden win can't be far away. Likewise, ISLES OF AVALON who gets the tongue tie on after being close without winning in both starts this prep. Even FROST YOURSELF comes out of a good form race with Rioyuki since winning and a few others from the race placing since.


As for TOROLINA, the winkers and tongue tie go on for the first time here which weren't listed as gear in the trials and could help her not miss the kick by so much - she did an incredible job to be within 4L of the winner and went to the line with Mighty Hercules (since last in his first two career races). She's not a big winning chance but at the $51 price we can have a small spec on her to win. Low confidence spec, look to have ~0.25u or so on.


Avoca, Race 3 - I AM NEWS

He brings in the clear best last start benchmark rating and his debut is the clear best peak benchmark rating of anyone in this field. It is a very winnable race and he just needs to run to one of his first two career runs and then he really should just be winning this. He'll be forward enough after having so many jump outs, just a slight query on whether or not he'll need further than the 1300m first up as he did look a bit one paced.


In saying that, not keen to get involved at ~$1.70. Will look to have a medium bet if he gets out to ~$2.50, but anything sub-$2 is a no play for us.


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