BlackBook - Saturday, 16 April 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 16 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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WARRACKNABEAL - Race 1
#7 KITANLAD started $3.70 and $6 in her first two career runs where she only beat home 2 runners across both of the runs, which is very disappointing. Don’t think she’ll start that short again but her win over 1000m in Heat 12 on Apr 7 was a solid mid-prep jump out (despite the residual fitness).
*she's opened sub-$4 again and at that price, I think we'd have to be pretty brave to be backing her - happy to leave*
KERANG - Race 1
He was a beaten $1.28 favourite last start at Wangaratta, so he’s going to be very hard but that was only his first racing campaign and #7 SINO WITNESS is now back for his second on the back of some handy jump outs. He was 4th to subsequent BM64 winner General Firepower on Mar 18 with Marimenko (since 2nd BM64) and Star Waltz (since 4th BM64) making up the places. He was then 3rd on Mar 25 behind subsequent MDN winner Excel Bella before cruising to the line in Heat 10 on Apr 5, which was the second fastest heat of the morning. He’s worth monitoring first up this campaign, but just don’t be diving into any short odds.
CAULFIELD - Race 2
#8 MAGNAJET has 5x first up runs for 3x wins, so he certainly goes well fresh and following an easy win in Heat 6 on Mar 21, he looks ready to go well again first up. Look for a BM70.
CAULFIELD - Race 5
She’s got the residual fitness coming off a short 3-week freshen up after finishing 2nd in a BM70 at Moonee Valley, but #6 MOON AND BACK was simply a class above as she bolted in Heat 10 on Apr 7.
Kerang, Race 1 - SINO WITNESS
He looks well placed here first up at 1400m on the back of the 3x jump outs where he didn't set the world alight, but still looked good. He's had the 6x career runs with 4x of those coming over 1400m, which is clear his preferred distance and he may get out over further in time - his two worst career ratings are +12.7 (on synthetic over 1400m) and +11.4 (over 1600m), of which would be competitive here anyway so he really just needs to run to his past career runs to be a good chance. In those 6x career runs, he's been beaten no more than 2.3L in any of the runs, so he's very consistent and expect another consistent run here in a winnable race.
Jake Duffy was booked to ride him and the Craig Weeding runner and takes the ride with Craig Weeding, which means Adam McCabe takes the ride of SINO WITNESS, which we're not entirely sure about. He comes into barrier 4 after scratchings, which is a lovely draw to push forward and take some catching.
We can get $3.20 on BetRight (as at 11:45am on Friday), which we're happy to take for the 1-unit (bet here) - would expect that to be snapped up pretty quickly so look to the $2.80 available most other places and try boost to ~$3. If he gets to sub-$2.50, best to wait until race day to back. Wouldn't surprise to see him start ~$2, so we'll look to lock in $2.50+.
UPDATE (Sat): Hopefully a few of us locked in the ~$3 yesterday, with no deductions. We're going to keep it at a 1-unit play with A McCabe taking the ride and him coming into $2.50-$2.60 now, which looks about the right price. Hoping for a simple and nice ride as he should be too good for this lot - if he can't win this, think he gets sacked.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
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Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Kerang, Race 1
SINO WITNESS ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $3.20 (BetRight) *early markets*
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +9.04 units at Recommend Price | +42.56 units at Betfair SP
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