Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 13 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
ECHUCA - Race 2
Having their first jump outs this prep, both WALK OF FAME (1st) and ALBANIAN STAR (2nd) both in some nice bits of work in Heat 4 on Mar 29 as they held off previous maiden winner The Genius. These two 3yo filly’s are worth keeping an eye on for another jump out ahead of their debut/return.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Echuca, Race 2
#11 WALK OF FAME (9) - D O'Brien
She made a nice debut here at Echuca a few weeks ago where she trailed the leader and eventual winner in Tapo throughout but just tired late, dropping back to 3rd over the concluding stages but we have seen 2nd in Regal Vow since win by 1.8L and she had a 3L gap back to 4th in Tango Jewel who has also since won by 3L.
She only had the 1x JO leading into her debut so it certainly wasn’t surprising to see her drop back late and she’ll certainly take a stack of improvement from that run that has now had some super form come from it.
Liam Riordan sticks and he’s drawn nicely with barrier 6 and the slight step up to 1200m. Not convinced Kodiak is much chop so happy to risk him first up on the back of only fair JO’s, likewise the 5-start maiden in Nic Legacy and then the race drops away.
Think she wins this so happy to bet at $2+ - it's short, but think she's still over the odds and should be more sub-$1.80.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Flemington, Race 1
#11 ISTHMUS (10) - A & S Freedman
BlackBook jump out comments:
ISTHMUS finished 5th in Heat 11 on Apr 12 but really caught the eye. The 2yo filly wasn’t away great and as a result was at the back of the field in the early stages but really closed off nicely under a hold, attacking the line and doing her best work past the line. She’s by I Am Invincible out of the Group 1 mare Shoals and interestingly enough, her half-brother by Written Tycoon sold for $1M at the recent Inglis sales, but Arrowfield and Pinecliff have elected to hold onto this filly and race her instead. Only her first jump out and only 750m, but a lovely bit of work.
Last Updated: 8:34am AEDT on Saturday, 13th May 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):