BlackBook - Saturday, 12 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 12 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
EDENHOPE - Race 3
#11 ROMANESCO FRESCO kicked away in Heat 7 on Feb 23 to record a nice victory in nice time and she looks to be travelling well ahead of her return. She was a quietly ridden 3rd in a Feb 7 official trial around some previous winners who are all better than maiden grade and she didn’t look out of place. Watch on her for her first up run.
TOWONG - Race 3
#8 CAMPOREALE bolted in a Feb 18 jump out, backing that up with another nice win in Heat 9 on Mar 4 where she pushed forward out wide and held the lead throughout. Bit of a query as to how she’ll go stepping up above 800m as they were making ground on her late in both jump outs, but still some nice wins under no pressure and one to keep in mind first up.
OTHER RUNNERS (FROM NSW TRIALS)
Flemington, Race 3 - #8 ZARASTRO (4)
Feb 21 (Rosehill) - big fan of this colt, he’s a really nice mover who should win some more races in his time - he went straight to the front here where he looked to do a bit wrong but still was too strong for the un-defeated Smirnova late - would love to see him continue through the grades.
Was happy to leave ROMANESCO FRESCO and CAMPOREALE (drawn barrier 12) at the prices - they can run well but was happy for them to win without backing them, especially with the meetings being at Towong and Edenhope (although, winners pay the same at Edenhope as they do at Flemington...).
Flemington, Race 3 - ZARASTRO
Think this is a smart 3yo colt and in a 3yo Listed race with only 54kg, he looks very well placed - he's been scratched from several NSW races due to the weather and comes down here to go up the straight on a good track. He's only been beaten by one horse in his career, that being Paulele who goes alright...
His two NSW trials were absolutely super, the tongue tie goes on and with the weight, he looks very hard to beat. J-Mac rode in the trials but can't get down to 54kg to ride him, with Craig Newitt getting the ride. Keen that he wins this.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.00 units.
Flemington, Race 3
ZARASTRO ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.80 (TAB)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.15 units at Recommend Price | +40.87 units at Betfair SP
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