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BlackBook - Saturday, 10 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 10 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

#5 LISTENTOZOU (3) - C Waller

Liked the way LISTENTOZOU closed off in Heat 7 on May 19. The 2yo Zoustar colt was cruising out the back throughout the heat but in the straight and late is where he did his best work, coming out to the middle and really powering to the line despite never fully being asked to extend. He didn’t win or place, but it looked as though he could’ve got over the top easily if asked. A $350k Magic Millions purchase, he moves well.

LISTENTOZOU is in super order ahead of his debut and love the way he goes about it. He caught our eye following a May 19 jump out where he closed superbly once he got some room late, doing similar in Heat 9 on Jun 2 where he cruised out the back before coming out wide and powering to and through the line despite being under a strong hold. If you keep watching past the line, he was still powering on and looked superb. A $350k Magic Millions purchase that has now had three jump outs with a May 5 jump out in addition to those mentioned, he looks a lovely mover and expect him to be running really well on debut wherever he goes.


SWAN HILL - Race 2

OTHER

PRIDE OF SULLIVAN showed a stack of speed in the early stages of Heat 14 on May 5 where he was restrained and forced to come back to the field late, although, past the line he kicked away again to open up a gap on the field again, so she had some petrol tickets left late, a good sign. Only the first jump out this prep from this 2yo daughter of Pride Of Dubai, she’s worth following into another jump out.

PRIDE OF SULLIVAN showed that same speed she had in her May 5 jump out but this time in Heat 6 on May 22 she was allowed to just run, and that she did, winning by a ridiculous margin in the fastest 800m time of the morning. She has a stack of speed and it was all on show here as she gave nothing else a chance as soon as she got to the front in the early stages. Lindsay Park trained her mum and this looks a 2yo filly that they might have some fun with.


SWAN HILL - Race 4

OTHER

SIMPLY SPARKLEZ closed superbly up the inside in Heat 9 on May 25 to win, having sat just in behind the leaders throughout for a lovely run, she really hit the line hard and backed up a previous May 16 win at Kerang. She can run well in a BM58/0-58 first up and hopefully at a price.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1

#5 LISTENTOZOU (3) - C Waller

Medium.

He's probably been one of the better 2YO's from the jump outs this year, he looked absolutely superb in all them but in particular his latest two and even his latest.


He looks a really nice horse and if he runs up to those JO's, he'll be awfully hard to beat here so happy to be betting. We think he's smart.

Swan Hill, Race 2

#9 PRIDE OF SULLIVAN (3) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

She bolted in her latest JO and did it at both ends while leading and then kicking away, which is why we can't let her go around without something on.

This race doesn't have a lot of depth either, Mansiere has looked solid at JO's, likewise Biosphere but they didn't catch the eye like our filly did.


She will certainly lead from barrier 3 and over 975m, this is the perfect kick off point for her. She should be running really well - thought the ~$2.50 was the right price to take for her.

Swan Hill, Race 4

#9 SIMPLY SPARKLEZ (3) - A Coffey

Low/Medium.

This combination wasn't kind to us yesterday but hoping they can repay the favour here with another 3yo filly of theirs that comes from the same set of JO's.


She gets the blinkers back on and looked super in both JO's that she won - drawn nicely here at the home track carnival, we think she can run well and go close to winning this.

Seems to have handled wet in the past having won her maiden on a Soft7, so hopefully isn't an issue here.


She's a nice price to find out as well at $8+.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 1

#11 MISS GABBIANO (4) - P Moody

BlackBook jump out comments:

MISS GABBIANO has looked good in multiple jump outs across multiple preps now, the 2yo filly winning Heat 6 on May 23 as she showed a stack of early speed before then kicking away in the straight to win in the fastest 800m time of the morning. A 2yo daughter of Better Than Ready, she looks a nice mover with some speed.

Sandown, Race 2

#8 FOREIGN RAIDER (11) - J Sadler

BlackBook jump out comments:

FOREIGN RAIDER was unlucky on debut at Cranbourne when flashing home for 2nd while running the meetings fastest L400m/200m, but really showed her talent second up over 1400m at Flemington when flying home from near last to finish 3rd to Tijuana by only 1.8L, putting a 2L gap on Perfect Thought back in 4th. The 3yo daughter of Tarzino didn’t give much away in her first jump out as she dropped back to last and just cruised to the line, but was given more of a hit out in Heat 2 on May 23 as she was pushed out and asked to close off over the 1000m, of which she did. Keeping a close eye on this filly.

Swan Hill, Race 3

#9 STELLER EAGLE (4) - H Dwyer

BlackBook jump out comments:

It’s My Turn won Heat 21 on May 16 but it was the fast finishing STELLER EAGLE that caught the eye. She’s a 3-start maiden with no career placings having only her first jump out or trial this preparation, but it was a super bit of work as she sat off the leaders throughout but really closed nicely late once she straightened up and came to the outside. Nice first trial.

Last Updated: 9:11am AEDT on Saturday, 10th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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