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BlackBook - Saturday, 1 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 1 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


ARARAT - Race 1

OTHER

We liked the work of #4 ALEXEIN in her Feb 16 win that saw her cruise to victory under a hold, albeit not beating much in terms of quality of opposition. We didn’t get much more of a guide from her work in Heat 3 on Mar 21 as Dakota Lee ran off with the win in the fastest ever time for 850m at Ballarat so we need to split this heat into two so she has cruised to the line under a hold alongside some nice horses such as Eluding, All About Eve, Foxy Frida and Movader where she looked to be going just as well as all of them. She is a 6yo mare who only had the one start here at Ballarat that saw her finish 3rd but she’s likely come back better now and they’ve been very patient with her so on the back of these jump outs, she is one to keep a close eye on.


BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER

#2 CHILLING was very quietly ridden in his Mar 14 official trial at Wangaratta but was a bit more on show in Heat 3 on Mar 21 as he matched motors with a race fit Celui throughout despite again being quietly ridden throughout. This grey son of Frosted is yet to be given a proper hit out so it’s hard to know whats under the bonnet but he looks a nice mover.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ararat, Race 1

#4 ALEXEIN (6) - M Lewis

Medium.

This is quite an ordinary race so doubt she'll find many better races to break the maiden.

Her debut was nice, albeit 9 months ago, her jump outs have been slick and she's drawn nicely with barrier 6. Expecting her to run a very nice race here!


Hopefully a few of us are on at the ~$6 available yesterday but if not, the $4+ is still a lovely price and very happy to be betting.

Bendigo, Race 3

#2 CHILLING (10) - J Salanitri

Low.

It's a tough race for the 2YO's and drawn a touch wide but at $41+, we can have something small/tiny on to find out. Low confidence / spec bet.

Last Updated: 8:18am AEDT on Saturday, 1st April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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