BlackBook - Monday, 7 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 7 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOE - Race 2
#12 FROSTED ROMANCE has put together two nice jump outs now, a win on Oct 10 backed up by her second placing in Heat 11 on Oct 24 where she closed superbly out wide from the back half of field under minimal pressure. The daughter of Frosted looks to be a nice mover, having been a $90k purchase from the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale back in 2021. Keeping an eye on her.
MOE - Race 3
A big win for #4 EGYPTIAN ICON in Heat 10 on Oct 18 marked his second nice bit of work following his Sep 29 jump out at Sale when 2nd to signal he’s come back in good order. From the inside gate he showed nice enough early speed to lead along the rail where he travelled quietly until the top of the straight when Jason Maskiell asking him to extend, and extend he did as he recorded a comfortable 4.5L win over the 1000m here in the second fastest time of the morning. He’s got nice enough form and ran 2nd to Illation first up last prep so expect a nice return from this 4yo gelding, he can go well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moe, Race 2
#12 FROSTED ROMANCE (3) - M Trotter
Her first JO win was ahead of Buttery, who won impressively on debut. Her latest JO was slick (as mentioned) and she's drawn beautifully here on debut to go very well in a race that doesn't have any stand outs.
The $6.50 looks a nice price to be on at, expecting (and hoping for) a nice debut.
Moe, Race 3
#4 EGYPTIAN ICON (9) - M Huglin
He was a late scratching last Saturday at Traralgon due to the track downgrade, which may have been a blessing in disguise now. His latest trial was at Moe and this looks a nice kick off point - outside of Life Lessons, the race looks quite even but even then, happy to take on the Moody favourite.
Think he's a really good winning chance and a good bet at the ~$4 mark.
Last Updated: 8:20am on Monday, 7th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1051x runners | 253x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.17 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 60x runners | 27x wins (45%) & 16x placings (72%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (47%)
Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):