BlackBook - Monday, 3 April 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 3 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 1
Expecting Heat 8 on Mar 6 to be a good form reference going forward. The jump out was won by a race fit GREECE, but the three 3yo filly’s who finished right behind her are all worth keeping an eye on.
Finishing 3rd in that Feb 20 and also 3rd in this heat was the 3yo Caravaggio filly in SILVER WAVES, who just has quietly gone about her business in both jump outs. She looks to move well enough to be competitive in most races on debut.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 2
I Am Caviar attempted to kick away in Heat 5 on Mar 21 as he was put under a lot of pressure, but the class of #6 ELLY DEE showed late as she closed super to get over the top and win, putting a huge gap on 3rd in the process. We backed her on debut at Mornington but she was no match for Musashi (won then on a 0-64 by 4L next start) despite accounting for the rest of the field, beating 3rd by 2.25L. She then went to Cranbourne and ran 3rd to Nunthorpe (since 3rd in Group 3) and Shaime (won MDN next start) while defeating Lievor (since 1st in MDN & BM64) and Reo (since 1st in MDN & CL1), so it’s super form all around her. Hoping she has another jump out before resuming but regardless, very keen to follow her and think she’ll be hard to beat first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Yarra Valley, Race 1
#9 SILVER WAVES (3) - C Maher & D Eustace
She’s been scratched from plenty of races over the last week or so, looking for the right race with a nice barrier and it looks as though she finds that here, a winnable maiden with barrier 3.
Looking at the jump out - South Of Houston has since ran 2nd in a BM64 and won a MDN by 6.5L), Queen of Malwa since 4th MDN and the winner was Greece and we know he talent. Her previous JO was alongside South Of Houston (again) and Sollozzo (since 3rd MDN) while ahead of Tocsia (since 3rd MDN), so reasonable form all around her.
She looked to handle the Heavy track at that latest JO so the wet here shouldn’t be too much of a worry but is always a query for any debutant.
The issue is now the price at close to ~$2, which isn't enticing and would be happy to let her go at that quote so we'll monitor her and see what we get closer to the jump.
If she's ~$2, we won't bet.
If she's ~$3+, we will bet.
Yarra Valley, Race 2
#6 ELLY DEE (6) - J Sadler
Thought SIGNAL was going to be hard to beat as he finally was racing over 1000m and had the blinkers on with barrier 1 - he's been scratched... which is a big positive.
ROTOKURA has been a tragedy beaten a couple times now and has done almost everything but win as he’s now a 14-start maiden… barrier 4 and Craig Newitt on board, it wouldn’t surprise to see him go forward.
ELLY DEE resumes on the back of only 1x JO but it was super and her debut prep form is super. Hoping Ben Allen doesn't take her back from the wide-ish barrier and he instead goes forward to be on speed where she will then look to come over the top late.
Happy to be with her here, especially at the price just under $3, she should start favourite.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Yarra Valley, Race 2
#1 ENVEEO (6) - M Lawson
BlackBook jump out comments:
ENVEEO was with Martin Lawson before a stint with P Payne and now back with Marita for his third prep, bolting in Heat 2 on Mar 3 where he went straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance over the 800m, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. Big win, fair jump out return.
Last Updated: 7:46am AEDT on Tuesday, 3rd April 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):