BlackBook - Monday, 29 August 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 29 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
BALLARAT - Race 2
#5 HONEYCUP (1) - C Jennings
Potentially a really nice filly for Caroline Jennings and Kennedy Racing, with their 2yo Hellbent filly in HONEYCUP putting together another nice jump out performance. We noted the filly down following her May 13 jump out alongside Exonumia in the second fastest time of the morning, with that runner since running 2nd, 3rd and 5th in maidens. Quite a similar style of jump out in Heat 7 on Jul 29, with the 2yo filly going forward and cruising to the line outside a horse, this time outside the un-raced colt Full Blown, where they clocked the third fastest time of the morning. She’s just cruising in her jump outs and looks to have talent. She’s a must follow into her debut.
Very confident that Caroline Jennings has a smart 3yo filly on her hands in HONEYCUP. This is her third career jump out now, with all three of them being classy bits of work. She went to the line alongside Exonumia in a her May 13 jump out where they clocked the second fastest time of the morning before heading out for a let up. She returned to just cruise to the line in 2nd place in a Jul 29 jump out, clocking the third fastest time of the morning. Her work again in Heat 9 on Aug 12 was super. She showed lovely gate speed to go forward again, cruising throughout before being asked for a bit of an effort at the top of the straight where she then opened up a margin on the field and won comfortably. She’s talented and we’re keen to back her on debut.
#11 VINCERE bolted in a 700m jump out on Jul 13, backing that up with a nice win over 900m in Heat 5 on Jul 27 and clocking the third fastest time of the morning in the process at 55.67s (vs the days average of 56.41s). She jumped cleanly here but had the wide barrier so drifted back before slowly edging herself up to the speed out wide where she was then put under pressure and looked to respond, finding enough under hands and heels to get up and win. This will really bring her on for her debut and being only a $12k buy as a daughter of Charge Forward, connections could be recouping that early.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Benalla, Race 2
#5 HONEYCUP (1) - C Jennings
Very keen on this filly - have absolutely loved her JO's and think she is primed to go. That first Jul 29 JO saw her cruise to the line outside Full Blown who then ran a 0.8L 3rd to Wee Nessy on debut.
Teo Nugent gets the ride with Billy Egan injured, from Barrier 1 should see her go forward and either lead or get a lovely sit and be very hard to beat. Keen.
#11 VINCERE (3) - D & C Feek
Brett Prebble obviously has a bit of time for this filly, heading to Benalla for only the one ride. She has jumped out well and think she will run well, but also think she just runs into one better today. We can't let her go around without anything on though, so she's definitely worth a saver bet to breakeven.
Last Updated: 8:14am on Monday, 29th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
679x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
968x runners | 222x winners (23%) & 267x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.55 WIN $3.07 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):