BlackBook - Monday, 27 September 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 27 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SWAN HILL - Race 1

#3 MARINE ONE (13) - C Maher & D Eustace

MARINE ONE has always shown talent at the jump outs as a 2yo but that didn’t exactly translate to race day. Now with Maher and Eustace, the now 3yo colt was a super winner of Heat 7 on Sep 15 where he was way too speedy and won by several lengths. Only his first jump out back and this is what he usually does at the jump outs, but the stable change might really bring him on and we’re happy to follow him. Hopefully contests an easier maiden first up to get that confidence up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Swan Hill, Race 1 - MARINE ONE

He's hard to trust due to the fact he always has jumped out well but yet to fully put it together on race day. In saying that, his 4 runs have been 3.2L behind Ingratiating, 1.7L behind General Beau, 2.8L behind General Beau & Anamoe and then 6L behind Najmaty where he was $5.50... all of those runners would dominate this race.

The 975m will suit his racing style and the stable change to Maher/Eustace is a big plus but barrier 13 of 13 (will be 12 after emergencies) certainly doesn't help. No surprise to see the colt bring in the clear best benchmark rating as well - if he runs to his worst career rating win, he wins this (unless an un-raced horse pops up).


We had SPEED LOVER, but has since been scratched and leaves MARINE ONE as the clear one to beat.


Very hard to see MARINE ONE getting beat - the issue is the $1.40 price. We'll wait until closer to the jump - if he's sub $1.50, we'll leave him but if we can get something close to $2 (even $1.80ish), we'll be playing. Can't see him losing.


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