Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 22 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
#4 CLOCK STRIKES was entered to go around at Pakenham on Monday in a Maiden despite having no jump outs or trials, but the stable electing to give him a trial prior to the debut and his talent was certainly on show. The 3yo colt showed a stack of speed to lead Heat 11 on Aug 9 with ease, holding off past winners in Tararua and Ranveer late to win in the fourth fastest time of the morning, plus he was going on with it past the line. In a previous prep, he didn’t take part in his first jump out on Mar 15 after missing the kick but then bolted in a Mar 21 jump out in a super bit of work. This is only his first trial so we’d be keen to follow him into another bit of work, but considering he was accepted to race it wouldn’t surprise to see him now head to the races. Monitoring where this colt pops up.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 4
#4 CLOCK STRIKES (3) - R Griffiths & M de Kock
Was hoping to see another jump out or trial, but at the same time, think we've seen enough to know he has some talent. He's drawn beautifully here to get a lovely run and expect him to be running really well here. He's our top pick of the race and think the $6 (TopSport) is overs - happy to be with him.
Boldhino has some handy form but his jump outs have looked ordinary (at best) - couldn't take $1.70 for him.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 5
#3 MAGIC DRUM (3) - K Wilson
He's travelling well at the JO's and resumes on the home track with Luke Nolen, all big ticks. He was 3rd to Miss Roseiano and Giga Kick in a Aug 2 JO where there is no vision, but the latest on Aug 16 when 2nd to Brereton over 750m in the second fastest time of the morning was a nice bit of work. Worth a small bet - playing late as he looks like he might drift a touch.
Last Updated: 8:33am on Monday, 22nd August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
955x runners | 219x winners (23%) & 263x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.62 WIN $3.09 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):