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BlackBook - Friday, 31 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 31 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

Have liked the way #6 FREE WILLED has gone about her jump outs. As mentioned a couple weeks ago, she has made her way to the Alderson yard following two NZ trials on Nov 3 and Dec 6 where she certainly looks to have some talent. She was 2nd in a Feb 13 jump out before backing them up in Heat 14 on Feb 27 where she sat in behind the leaders throughout the heat until late as they were pushed out and she was still cruising, checking off heels as she then closed nicely in the final 200m. She’s a nice mover and a big watch on debut here.


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

The Boulder City filly #9 RUB OF THE GREEN got out to a sizeable lead in the early stages of Heat 5 on Mar 21 and looked the goods but they did catch her late, so unsure if she tired or if she was pulled up, which we’ll only find out once it’s too late as she would’ve already raced. Her first jump out on Feb 21 saw her quietly ridden out the back after being slow away while her official trial at Berrigan on Mar 4 doesn’t have any vision so it’s hard to get a real guide on her but think she’s worth keeping an eye on first up pending price.


A pair of jump out wins now for #10 TORONLUCA ahead of her debut. This 3yo filly had a pair of jump outs in a previous campaign in Oct/Nov last year that culminated in her cruising to a 2nd placing behind the talented 2yo Serasana on Nov 7 before going for a spell. She returned on Mar 5 that saw her win quite well down the middle of the track where she was again cruising throughout, albeit over only 650m, before then stepping up to 800m in Heat 8 on Mar 20 for quite a dominant win in the end. She looked to be quite heavily restrained down the back straight as she took some cover form the wide barrier and she clearly did her best work in the straight once she did peel out for a bit of clear air, closing superbly down the middle of the track again under minimal pressure to get up and win. This Toronado filly looks a lovely mover and wouldn’t surprise us to see Luke Oliver make that $31k back that he paid for her at the Magic Millions Sales. Keen to follow her.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Benalla, Race 1

#10 SUZIDO (6) - C Littlefield

Medium.

She caught the eye from her debut run for the wrong reasons (if you were on her) as she was held up and really should've just about won with clear air. The winner was coming off 4x placings prior to this and we've seen the 3rd horse in Extreme Ally run a very close 2nd to Stateswoman.

Besides being held up, she still ran the meetings 2nd fastest L600m/L400m, along with the 9th fastest L200m.


She's drawn nicely here with barrier 6 to get a lovely run sitting just off the leaders here and with clear air, she'll get her chance to go one better.

The Maher horses are the main dangers but they're drawn out and likely will be spotting her a start.


Think the ~$4 is a nice price and happy to be betting.

Cranbourne, Race 1

#6 FREE WILLED (1) - C Alderson

Medium.

Thought this filly's debut was quite nice, beating all but Clock Strikes on debut with that galloper since winning a BM58 by 2.8L while the 3rd horse since also winning, which is nice form.

She sat outside the very speedy Clock Strikes in that race, so expect her to be using barrier 1 and sitting right up there, especially in a small field.


Expecting PENMAN to go forward and likely lead but got a real ? over him, think his latest JO was ordinary and he was weak late. TREOTTO has had his chance and think he'll be spotting them a start. Others are chances, but need to improve to win this.


Happy to be with this filly, think she'll run a super race 2UP and will be backing her - the $3.50+ looks a nice price in a small field.

Cranbourne, Race 3

#9 RUB OF THE GREEN (10) - E Maher

Low.

The latest JO was good enough to suggest she can run a cheeky race and at $61+ (even $81 on Ladbrokes), we don't have to have much on for a return (~$5 for a $400 collect).

#10 TORONLUCA (8) - L Oliver

Medium.

She couldn't have jumped out better and debuts at the home track - that latest JO was super and on the back of that, she is clearly the one to beat here.


The main danger looks to be the stablemate who we also have, which is a bit frustrating as would prefer them to go the separate ways - can have a saver on her if you'd like (will likely have one on ourselves pending prices as they jump).


We want to be with this filly, but the $2.50 looks a touch skinny so we'll wait until closer to the jump as she likely gets out closer to the jump, should get $3+ for sure.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Cranbourne, Race 3

#7 KEITANY (4) - L Oliver

BlackBook jump out comments:

THE EXTREME CAT won Heat 9 on Mar 20 but he was pushed out and only just got over the top of the leader in KEITANY who was the takeaway from this heat. This 3yo filly has a bit of mixed form, beaten only 0.3L on debut by Beefeaters (since won 2x BM58’s) before an 11-week let up and a very disappointing jump out on Mar 6, albeit a Heavy track so we can forgive that. She led them up here and while she would’ve had some residual fitness, she did it very easily and it took some urgency to get over the top of her late. She can run well in a maiden (hopefully a good track though).

Last Updated: 7:53am AEDT on Friday, 31st March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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