BlackBook - Friday, 26 May 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 26 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BALLARAT - Race 1
#7 THE SIMPLE LIFE (7) - C Maher & D Eustace
An NZ purchase following a 2nd placing in a Dec 6 trial, THE SIMPLE LIFE showed that same closing speed to get over the top of the leading 70-rated Logo Logic in Heat 7 on May 1 as the un-raced 3yo filly sat outside him throughout but got the better of him despite never being asked for an effort - a lovely bit of work where they also clocked the fastest time of the morning. That Dec 6 trial in NZ actually saw her finish 2nd to another galloper that came to Aus in Free Willed, who was 2nd on debut to Clock Strikes before winning her maiden second up impressively, which is nice form that ties in Aus maiden form. Adding to that, the 3rd horse in Cheval D’Or won a Group 3 in NZ at the end of April, so it’s super form all round. Quite keen to follow her into another jump out prior to making her Australia debut.
THE SIMPLE LIFE is a nice filly. We were keen to follow her following a May 1 jump out that saw her get over the top of the 70-rated Logo Logic late over the 800m while clocking the fastest time of the morning. She looked just as good as she stepped up to 1100m in Heat 6 on May 16 where she cruised out in front throughout and went to the line untouched, albeit with some interference from the riderless horse. As mentioned previously, she was purchased following a Dec 6 trial in NZ were she finished 2nd to another galloper that came to Aus in Free Willed who now has a record of 3:2-1-0 in Aus following her win at Sandown last Wednesday. John Allen was on board here so look for him to be on board when she heads to the track and we’re keen to follow her wherever she goes.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
#7 THE SIMPLE LIFE (7) - C Maher & D Eustace
Thought that Kilmore race yesterday was perfect for her but the track was ordinary so hoping they made the right decision racing here - in saying that, J Allen rode in the trials and he's on another horse, which doesn't give us a lot of confidence. The horse he's on in Smokey Warrior has won 2x JO's on this track and surface but beat ordinary horses so was happy to take her on.
Adeem is a 2yo with only fair form having finished 8th of 9 last start in a 2YO maiden.
She did beat home Skilton in that latest trial who then ran 2nd at Pakenham, so that's good form and that first JO she looked super as well, not to mention the form from her NZ trial.
If she can't win this, she'll struggle to win many other maidens so have to be with her here. Thought she'd be sub-$2 favourite so happy to take the ~$2.50.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Cranbourne, Race 2
#2 AMEERATI (10) - R Griffiths & M de Kock
BlackBook jump out comments:
AMEERATI made a lovely return in Heat 8 on May 15 as the 3yo filly cruised up behind them, weaving through the pack in the straight and win quite comfortably in the end. The daughter of Pride Of Dubai unfortunately couldn’t break through in her debut prep as a late 2yo/early 3yo, but has been given more time and looks in good order.
Last Updated: 7:38am AEDT on Friday, 25th May 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):