Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 24 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
Returning from an Oaks campaign, #8 MAKRANA has put in two solid jump out wins ahead of her returns, the first on Mar 10 with the latest in Heat 8 on Mar 17 where she’s been too speedy in the both of them, albeit not breaking the clock. She ran super on debut and nicely second up before competing in Group races, so the stable must have an opinion of her and expect her to be running well again this upcoming prep on the back of these jump outs.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 4
#8 MAKRANA (3) - M & L Kavanagh
Craig Newitt on board from barrier 3 when she's been leading (and winning) in both of her jump outs may signal a bit of intent here... if she goes forward and leads, she should be in this a long way.
She obviously will appreciate a lot further but she ran super first up last prep (albeit over 1400m on a Heavy track) and on the back of some sharp jump outs, she might take some catching here.
Don't think Count Nicholas or Caesar Cake are any flash favourites while Mootessa could run super 3UP. Solid race but very even and open, which is why we're siding with this filly at some value.
Also will note she has the blinkers on here, which she didn't have in her jump outs... another positive.
We want to take $10+ for this filly so it's a small bet with not much outlay so either wait until closer to the jump, or we can have ½ on this morning at the $7-$8 and the other ½ on closer to the jump (hoping $10+).
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Geelong, Race 2
#2 HURRICANE THUNDER (10) - M, W & J Hawkes
BlackBook jump out comments:
HURRICANE THUNDER was huge on debut at Sale back in October 2022, settling last in a big field before having to weave through a stack of traffic as he was held up and checking off multiple heels but rattled home in the meetings fastest L800m/600m/400m and second fastest L200m to finish 3rd. He was put away following this run, returning in Heat 2 on Mar 10 for his first jump out this preparation where Oli took it easy on him, travelling wide and on speed without being asked for an effort throughout. He was the only maiden in this field yet easily looked to be travelling the best in a heat that was the fifth quickest of the morning. Hoping he has another jump out prior to resuming.
Geelong, Race 2
#5 PUNCH LANE (8) - A & S Freedman
BlackBook jump out comments:
Another nice jump out from PUNCH LANE. Having matched motors with Caste in a previous jump out on Mar 3, this 3yo gelding stepped up to 1000m in Heat 5 on Mar 15 where he also had the blinkers go on for a soft win while those around him were pushed out. They paid $220k for this son of So You Think back in 2021 and have been very patient with him as this is his third preparation of jump outs, but it is his first as a gelding which certainly looks to have switched him on. A gelding to keep an eye on.
Last Updated: 7:51am AEDT on Friday, 24th March 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):