BlackBook - Friday, 23 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 23 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


GOULBURN - Race 6

OTHER

#5 SELOUS’s victory in Trial 7 on Sep 15 is one of the better trial wins you’ll see and he looks in super order ahead of his return. Following a quieter Aug 29 trial over 781m when 3rd, James McDonald stuck with the 3yo colt into into this 1000m trial where he was poorly away and forced to take a sit at the back of the field on the fence but displayed a super turn of foot over the final 300m as he forced his way to the middle of the field and went bang. The son of Shooting To Win was clearly superior here and has returned in super order as a 3yo, so look for James McDonald to stick for his first up run.

#14 RED CARD was ordinary upon return when finishing last (12th of 12), but she slow to recover that day. She was given a 14-week let up, returning on Aug 22 where she recorded a dominant 4.31L win over 800m when leading from start to finish. Her work in Trial 13 on Sep 15 was just as impressive, again going forward to lead but travelling wide throughout as she cruised to the line to record an easy win in the end. She’s finished last in both career runs so far, which will be a slight query but we likely get a price as a result and could look at a small play.


COLERAINE - Race 5

OTHER

Despite technically finishing 2nd, #4 SEPTAGRAM had the measure of Outback Action in Heat 4 on Sep 6, more specifically over the final 100-200m and past the line where he did it quite easily plus they clocked nice time for the morning. Noting that he has had the three runs this preparation, but coming off a 7-week let up we might see some improvement at a big price. Keeping an eye on him.

 
TELEGRAM CHAT

We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!

Follow the steps below:

1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org

2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1

3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9


BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Goulburn, Race 6

#5 SELOUS (4) - J Cummings

High.

Scratched from Scone to run here, most likely due to the track and better barrier. He's another one where we have loved his trials and he really should be winning this if he runs up to them. He's a 3yo colt and love that he did so over 1000m as well, so he should be forward enough for this. He looks progress and if so, he should take care of them here - the ~$3 looks about right.

#14 RED CARD (10) - J Cummings

Low/Medium.

It's quite annoying that the stablemates stay in the same race together - hard to see her knocking off SELOUS, who's our clear on top selection, but she might be the saver bet to break even just in case.

Coleraine, Race 5

#4 SEPTAGRAM (1) - C Scott

Low/Medium.

Blinkers go on for the first time here, which he potentially had on in that JO and is the reason for the improvement. Have to wonder if Linda Meech on from barrier 1 signals intent to go forward?

The ~$7 looks a bit skinny, was hoping for a big price to have a small bet - one to monitor as a small bet late at $10+ is the plan.


UPDATE: we're not going to get $10+ and Linda Meech is taking the piss at Coleraine (4/4) so we're going to just have to back ½ now and ½ at SP.

Last Updated: 9:05am on Friday, 23rd September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

995x runners | 233x winners (23%) & 274x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.35 WIN $3.04 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB