BlackBook - Friday, 2 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 2 September 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
MORNINGTON - Race 4
Can’t ignore the wins of #8 RICH FORTUNE, the 3yo filly now winning her past 3x jump outs with two of those coming this prep. She genuinely walked to victory under a strong hold in a Jul 27 jump out over 900m at Mornington, backing that up with a win in Heat 13 on Aug 9 as the 3yo filly responded to the urges of Craig Williams late to clock the third fastest time of the morning in the process. She’s a daughter of Rich Enuff that looks to move well.
Expect #10 SOREL RISING to be breaking his maiden seen. He was very quietly ridden in a Jul 18 trial when a 1L 3rd to Fake Magic (since 4th MDN) while his win in Heat 9 on Aug 8 saw him travel very wide but close well when asked for a response by Damien Oliver. He went past Nixie comfortably and there was a good gap back to the rest of the field, an encouraging jump out and his debut 3rd reads well enough. Look for a 1000m maiden first up.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
We were keen to back all of ORZALA, CUSTODIAN and LASCARS today, but unfortunately all three are scratched...
Confidence - Comments
Mornington, Race 4
#8 RICH FORTUNE (1) - J Hunter
Craig Williams rode in her trial and sticks on debut here - she was alongside Roaring Miss (since 3rd), Foxy Gold (since 1st) and then Enfant Rouge and Vincere who started favourites but ran poorly. With Lascars scratched, he's the one to beat and happy to be with him on debut at the home track with Craig Williams on.
#10 SOREL RISING (8) - B Stanley
He has since won a jump out at Bendigo on Aug 26 and looks to be in good order ahead of his return but prefer to be with Rich Fortune, who trialled on the day and clocked 45.76s vs this geldings 46.38s. In saying that, he looks the main danger so could be worth a saver if the odds permit, but prefer to be on Rich Fortune.
Last Updated: 8:26am on Friday, 2nd September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
679x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
970x runners | 222x winners (23%) & 267x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.53 WIN $3.07 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):