BlackBook - Friday, 17 September 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 17 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 1

OTHER

The work of #6 BEAGLE past the line was super, attacking the line with a stack of pace to be in front past the line in Heat 13 on Aug 20. A beaten $2.10 favourite on debut, suspect he was tipped out and given a let up in preparation for a spring attack.

Luke Currie just sat motionless on #9 FROM PANTHERLAND on the inside to finish 3rd in Heat 8 on Aug 30. This backs up his Aug 16 jump out win and with debut form behind Najmaty and Hunnam (when a 3.45L 4th), he looks to be one that we must keep in mind.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

Check for the blinkers going on #7 LADY AUDREY next start, they went on in her jump out win in Heat 8 on Sep 3 (pink) in the fastest time of the morning - she did have race fitness though. Ran into a nice one first up when 3rd but she was poor last start. Expecting decent odds but this is a positive gear change and jump out.


GEELONG - Race 3

#8 LAFARGUE (7) - D O'Brien

LAFARGUE started $3.50 on debut at Flemington, managing a disappointing 6th but pulling up with a slow recovery in a forgive run. He’s been given 12-weeks since that run, returning up the straight in Heat 2 on Aug 9 (navy) and winning impressively in slick time with the addition of blinkers. As this was only his first jump out back, expect another bit of work before he resumes but he already looks to be improved after that break and with the gear change.

OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Geelong, Race 1 - BEAGLE & FROM PANTHERLAND

BEAGLE was disappointing first up when 9th but the run rated well and is the clear best last start benchmark rating heading into this. Some nice form too with Prowling (3rd) since winning while Broadway Lane (8th) and Shalaga (5th) have placed since. He was $3.80 that day with the blinkers now going on and Jye McNeil taking the ride.


From FROM PANTHERLAND's first jump out on Aug 16, the horse he went to the line with (Invincible Crown) has since ran 3rd in a MDN. If he has improved from his first prep and brings the jump out form, he goes close here.


Have BEAGLE on top with the race fitness and the blinkers going on - very happy to take advantage of our Unibet promotion and the ~$3 available. Have FROM PANTHERLAND as a very close second and at the ~$4 available, we're happy to play as well for a profit as well. Two bet play on BEAGLE and FROM PANTHERLAND.


Geelong, Race 2 - LADY AUDREY

Mindful that we had STAR WALTZ as an 'Other' BlackBook runner first up - the run didn't rate too well and Isles Of Avalon has flopped since. We wouldn't be confident backing her (which is why she isn't included here second up) even though she will lead and give them something to chase from barrier 2.


As expected, the blinkers go on for the first time on LADY AUDREY and we expect to see some improvement. If you ignore her latest run behind Linas Legend, her previous three runs are good enough to win this. At $13+ / $3+, happy to have an E/W play for a small bet and see if the blinkers switch her on. Don't have to outlay much at that price.


Geelong, Race 3 - LAFARGUE

LAFARGUE is an interesting one, having been scratched several times (from much harder races) but we haven't seen him at the jump outs since that Aug 9 jump out up the straight. Craig Williams booked to ride can only be a positive and has drawn well with barrier 7. He's also a paid up first acceptor for the Caulfield Guineas, so they obviously have an opinion of him.


First up now at 1325m (having only raced 1000m on debut) off only the one jump out that was over a month ago. Not the best recipe for success, especially at $2.50.

CHAIN looks like he is going to be hard to beat, with LAFARGUE probably the second pick as the race drops away. If we can get ~$3.50 or so then we'll be happy to have a bet on him but for now, we'll let him go around. A win wouldn't shock, just too many question marks at the current price.


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