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BlackBook - Friday, 17 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 17 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WODONGA - Race 2

OTHER

#5 WHITE BEAR really caught the eye in the blue/white hooped silks in Heat 5 on Jan 13, hard held throughout in a lovely first jump out his preparation. A 3yo gelded son of Shamexpress, he’s had two previous preps of two jump outs as he now returns for his third career prep and moved nicely here.

#5 WHITE BEAR caught the eye from a Jan 13 when finishing behind Fly On Bye (since 3rd in BM70) and he caught the eye again in Heat 13 on Jan 27 but this time for a different reason. In his first jump out he was hard held throughout out the back, whereas in this jump out he was allowed to go forward and given a lot more reign, leading throughout as he cruised to the line to record a soft victory. He’s a nice mover and keen to follow him into his debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Wodonga, Race 2

#5 WHITE BEAR (7) - M Moroney

High.

Loved this geldings jump outs, especially the latest and he looks a really nice mover to the eye as well.


This is a very winnable race following the scratching of Royal Invader. RIP EDITION looks the main danger for us having been a good winner of a Feb 7 jump out here at Wodonga ahead of WALKER ROAD - only had the 1x JO though so slight query there but if you're wanting a saver, he's the one. Can't see any of the others getting closer.


Very happy to have our gelding WHITE BEAR on top, he looks quite talented as a really nice mover and think he can run super here on debut.

Happy to bet at the $1.80 this morning as can't really see much money coming for anybody else - he's the clear horse to beat.

Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Friday, 17th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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