BlackBook - Friday, 15 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 15 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MOE - Race 1

#7 VIKING REBEL (6) - M Laurie

VIKING REBEL is tracking super ahead of his debut, topped off with his win in Heat 7 on Oct 6 over the 800m following some other nice jump outs. He was good out wide over 600m on Sep 8 before finishing 2nd to Baekdu on Sep 15, that runner since starting $1.60 on debut in a MDN but finishing 2nd. In this heat though, he sat on speed just outside Charteres throughout and went to the line untested with Big Apple making ground late but he really attacked the line and had a bit more to give. Worth noting that he won a 650m Apr 21 jump out and was 4th to Argentia in a May 5 jump out prior to having a spell. He can go well on debut.

OTHER

#1 MIGHTY HERCULES is another from Heat 4 on Sep 20 that is worth putting on the watch list. Won a Jul 6 jump out when hard held on a heavy track. Given a let up, the 3yo colt was again hard as he went to line with no urgency (but still well) to finish 2nd. Nice bit of work in his return, hoping to see another but of work to get a real gauge.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

#8 LUNA CAT (6) - B & JD Hayes

The other one to take from this heat Heat 3 on Sep 17 (red) is LUNA CAT, the 3yo filly returning with a win here in good order as she went to the line hard held alongside better than maiden grade gallopers and didnt look out of place. She ran the meetings fastest L400m and L200m on debut and is one to watch.


Loved the way LUNA CAT moved here, closing super to finish 2nd in Heat 6 on Oct 1 (red) and showing that turn of foot she showed on debut. We mentioned her as one to take from a Sep 17 jump out and this jump out furthered her credentials. She was away well enough but taken to the rear of the field, cruising throughout before finding some galloping room in the straight and closing super, much better than Frisson. Past the line she was pretty much even with the break away leader. Think she’ll go well first up in a maiden.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

#10 BAEKDU clocked the second fastest time of the morning in her Heat 9 win on Sep 15. She jumped beautifully, cruised up to the lead and did it easy to win by a couple lengths. She had a pair of jump outs in May, the most impressive a May 18 win alongside Cardinal Gem who then came out and finished 2nd in a MDN and then won second up. He’s better than maiden grade and will be competitive on debut.


This was a huge win by #10 BAEKDU in Heat 3 on Sep 21 (yellow). Following her slick Sep 15 jump out, she was clearly a class above the field here as she won the heat by some 10L in the fastest time of the morning, handling the Heavy(10) track easily. As mentioned previously, she had a pair of jump outs in May, the most impressive a May 18 win alongside Cardinal Gem who then came out and finished 2nd in a MDN and then won second up. Following her into her debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Moe, Race 1 - VIKING REBEL (& MIGHTY HERCULES)

They clearly had an opinion of MIGHTY HERCULES, debuting in the Group 2 Danehill at Flemington but he wasn't quite up to it as he finished 11th of 11 by a big ~19L. Back to maiden grade now with barrier 2 looks very suitable.

VIKING REBEL has jumped out well and think he can go well on debut here, while MR SATELLITE was a previous mention before his first up run but tired late when leading to finish 2nd by 5L - probably would've liked to see him at 1000m but he will be much fitter second up.


In hindsight, we should've taken the $14+ available in early markets for MIGHTY HERCULES (hope some did). VIKING REBEL is just a touch too short at ~$2.20 currently with queries on how he'll handle a heavy track. For those wanting to play, MIGHTY HERCULES on top with VIKING REBEL a close second pick and smaller place chances to TOMMY BEAR, MAKING CONTACT and MR SATELLITE.


A Heavy8 track at Moe isn't too enticing though, so we're happy to leave this race and have the no bets.


Pakenham, Race 1 - LUNA CAT

Currently a Soft7 track but there is a fair bit of rain expected between 2pm and 8pm, so who knows where this track could be come race time (which is at 5:15pm).


LUNA CAT moves well and expecting her to come back improved here in her second preparation. Both jump outs were on the synthetic but she did handle a Soft7 track on debut so the wet track shouldn't be too much of a worry.

SENEGALIA and SIRIANNI come from the same race behind Our Boy Bryan which looks to be the right form. Expecting the winner to come from one of these three.


Another race that's not too enticing. Would expect some late money to come for SENEGALIA and/or SIRIANNI, so we might be able to get a better price for LUNA CAT late. If we can manage to get closer to ~$4 than the $3 she is currently, we can have a low confidence play. Monitor her price as we get closer to the jump.


Pakenham, Race 2 - BAEKDU

All but won on debut (gapped 3rd by 3.5L), bringing in the best last start benchmark rating with no clear stand outs from the jump outs that are on debut here. Barrier 2 should see her go straight to the front over the 1000m now second up and be very hard to chase down. Handled a very wet Moe track on debut and a wet track here should pose no problems.


No surprise to see her open up and be sub-$2 again, she is going to be very hard to beat and expect her to win. Not diving into the ~$1.45 though with a few scars from the debut (beaten $1.60 favourite...). We're happy to play if she gets out to ~$2+ late, but at the current very short price, we'll let her go around with no bets on.


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