BlackBook - Friday, 11 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 11 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 2

OTHER

He hasn’t beaten much here, but the turn of foot #1 MONSOON REINS showed late in Heat 12 on Feb 25 was super and he clearly is better than maiden grade. He ran into Never Say Nay first up (who then won a BM64 next start) with 3rd and 4th since winning. He then met one better again in Moon And Back (who has since won a BM64 at Moonee Valley) with a nice 2.75L gap back to 3rd place before failing at Moonee Valley and being put away. He had another nice jump out on Feb 11 behind a very speedy Pal’s Reward and on the back of this work, looks ready to head back to the races and finally knock off that maiden (if he doesn’t find one better again…). One to follow.


The gelding looks to have switched #14 WHISPERING TYCOON on, showing lovely gate speed to lead the whole way in Heat 3 on Feb 25 (red) and hold that lead past the line, although he did clock the second slowest time of the morning. He showed that lovely gate speed in a previous jump out on Feb 14 (red) at Werribee, but was just overran late but a couple of horses who were put under a lot more pressure than him. His first three career runs were really poor, but he’s worth keeping in mind first up as a gelding on the back of this work.


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

#7 INTO THE FURY (1st), KUROLATION (2nd) and MISS MATADOR (3rd) from Heat 12 on Feb 14 were all having their first jump out this preparation and all three looked to move well, but they did clock the third slowest time of the morning. Regardless, monitoring all three of these runners into another jump out to get a real gauge on how they’re travelling.

*Kurolation ran 2nd at Kilmore on Thursday as a form reference*


CRANBOURNE - Race 4

#10 MRS CHRISSIE (2) - P Rocke

Have loved the work of MRS CHRISSIE in numerous jump outs now, the majority of them under her breeding Per Incanto x Turf Fire. As mentioned previously, her jump outs have been super and included Aug 11 over 700m and Aug 25 over 900m where she beat home Sharwin (who has won 2 of 3 career races) and Genuinely in 3rd (who has since won a maiden and finished 4.55L off Barb Raider in the Group 3 Vanity on Saturday just gone) with a big gap to 4th. She was super in these bits of work but didn’t get to the races and was tipped out for a spell and given more time. She returned over 700m on Jan 27 for a very slick win before stepping up to 1000m in Heat 8 on Feb 23 where she was ridden just ridiculously. She could’ve won this heat by a space if she was ever allowed to run, the jockey was even standing up in the straight and she still finished 2nd. Not to mention, that’s the Group 3 winning La Mexicana running over the top of her too… Looking into her breeding and their NZ form, her mum in Turf Fire was Group 3 placed over in NZ while her full-sister in Glinda Goodwitch was 6th and only 2.2L off the Group 1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) in NZ before starting favourite in her next start in the 1600m Listed Buffalo & Co Champagne Stakes at Ellerslie (article here) and then being retired after only the 6x career starts. She has a half-brother that was exported to Singapore on the back of two trials in NZ as well so there looks to be a bit of talent in the family. We think she has talent and are very keen to follow her into a debut - we might get a nice price too considering Paul Rocke doesn’t have many in work and is a smaller stable. Very keen.


As you may have noticed last week, we are very keen on MRS CHRISSIE. She had her third jump out this preparation, finishing 2nd to Melanie in Heat 4 on Mar 2 over the 900m in slick time where she cruised along the rail and was never really asked to get out of first gear. Don’t need to say much more, just put her in the blackbook and wait for her to debut.

OTHER

INTO THE FURY (1st), KUROLATION (2nd) and #4 MISS MATADOR (3rd) from Heat 12 on Feb 14 were all having their first jump out this preparation and all three looked to move well, but they did clock the third slowest time of the morning. Regardless, monitoring all three of these runners into another jump out to get a real gauge on how they’re travelling.

*note that Kurolation ran 2nd at Kilmore on Thursday and Into The Fury is in Race 3 prior, which will be a nice form reference for here*


#6 BEAKDU was beaten as a $1.60 favourite in both of her starts in her first career preparation. She led in both of those starts, getting nabbed late on debut on a Heavy track at Moe (with a 2.5L gap back to 3rd) and similar in her second start although she lost by 4.5L with a big 2.75L gap back to 3rd and she bled during the run. She showed that speed again in Heat 6 on Feb 15, going straight to the front and winning in the fastest 800m time of the morning, defeating several past winners in the process. We’d like to see one more jump out, which we’d expect her to lead and win as well, before diving into the inevitable short price she will be first up.


#9 MELANIE has speed and her win in Heat 13 on Feb 16 was no different where she sat outside the leader and was too strong late over the 750m. She has a friendly racing pattern as she leads or at least sits on speed, so this was an encouraging return for a 3yo filly we can follow into another jump out before resuming.

#9 MELANIE showed her speed again to lead and just hold off an un-raced Mrs Chrissie in Heat 4 on Mar 2 over the 900m having won her previous Feb 16 jump out over 750m. Looking for her to resume in a 1000m country maiden, hopefully with a low barrier, where she will lead and give a good sight. One to follow into that first up run.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Bendigo, Race 2 - JUNKO (+ WHISPERING TYCOON)

MONSOON REINS was good last preparation without winning, but the best rating of those three runs was +10.2 and he draws barrier 12 of 12 here. He's had two nice jump outs ahead of his return and can certainly run well here, but it's hard to back him with that barrier in this field.

WHISPERING TYCOON is the second emergency so not entirely sure he gets a run, but resuming gelded here he might be able to give a sight at a price - he was in a few races last week but was scratched from all, the latest at Sale on Sunday where he was $34 into ~$8 or so (with some deductions) before being scratched. Could be worth a spec?


IS THIS LOVE jumped out okay on Feb 14, likewise on Feb 25 - certainly couldn't take the ~$2 about her. Her two career runs have rated +21.0 and +8.5, so she will need to come back improved to win this.


STARLEA's four runs last preparation all rated between +3.6 and +7.2, all of which would be in the top three peak ratings of this race so if she runs to her best, she can run well here first up - looks a winning chance with barrier 4 - latest jump out on Feb 25 was just okay?

JUNKO's runs have rated +3.9 and +6.1, both of which would have him very competitive in this race and feel as though he's the one to beat here. Third up now, reaching peak fitness and sticking at 1100m are all ticks.


Taking on the favourite in IS THIS LOVE and going with JUNKO on top here - think she should've won last start and the losing of the 2-3L shortly after jumping was very costly. P Moloney jumps on board and this is a winnable race. WHISPERING TYCOON looks a chance at a big price and happy to have a small bet - leaving MONSOON REINS though with that barrier.


Bendigo, Race 4 - EXTREME EMOTION

We've been following her pretty much every run and she's been a money muncher so far...

Despite her starting $1.40 first up over 1000m on a Heavy10 track, feel as though that run was treated as a 'jump out for prize money'. She went into that run having had 0 jump outs or trials prior and the 1000m is certainly short of her best, so it was an interesting run but she did run the meetings 4th fastest L600m/L200m and 5th fastest L400m first up. Last preparation she started at 1100m, which was too short, before stepping up to 1300m where she led but was nabbed late by Luna Cat who won a BM64 by 3.3L at Moonee Valley next start.


She steps up to 1400m here second up with barrier 3, which looks very suitable and would be expecting a much improved run. Think she goes forward from barrier 3 to get a lead along the rail and be the one to catch.


Won't be playing, but this has to finally be the race......


Cranbourne, Race 4 - MRS CHRISSIE

Both of BAEKDU's runs have been on a Heavy track where she's started $1.60 in both. The debut was on a Heavy8 and rated +3.6, which is the second best peak rating of this race. Her last start 2nd at Pakenham only rated +12.4 and there has been no form come from the race - she lost by 4.5L to Sir Freddie who was than 5L off a BM64 next start - in saying that, it was a Heavy9 and the meeting was abandoned after this race. She'll be much better suited to dry ground but she will go forward and with barrier 13 of 13, it's going to take a big run to overcome that and still win, especially on the back of only one jump out. Few queries for us.


There is going to be a stack of speed in this race. In addition to BAEKDU leading in both of her career runs, PRIDE OF LIMASSOL has also led in both of his two runs and brings in the best last start rating of +6.1 when 2nd to Over Boost on a Heavy10 track at Bendigo - with barrier 4 here, expect him to go forward.

MELANIE is another who led in her only career run and brings in the second best last start rating at +10.4 - she has barrier 8 with D Thornton booked to ride and will be prominent - she also beat MRS CHRISSIE in the latest jump out and looks a good winning chance here.


Have loved MRS CHRISSIE's jump outs and despite MELANIE looking to have her measure in the latest, we're more than happy to be with MRS CHRISSIE - we don't need to say much more than what is in our write up above. This is a nice little maiden but she's jumped out too well to ignore - with barrier 1, she can be prominent in the run, probably sit just in behind that hot speed and go well. If she doesn't win this, we'll certainly be following going forward second up (at the very least).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.50 units.


Bendigo, Race 2

JUNKO ~ 1.75 units WIN @ $4.00 (TAB)

WHISPERING TYCOON ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $19.00 (TAB) or $23.00 (BetRight)


Cranbourne, Race 4

MRS CHRISSIE ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -9.69 units at Recommend Price | +27.03 units at Betfair SP

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