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BlackBook - Friday, 10 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 10 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Kilmore, Race 2

#7 WALTER SPUR (9) - S Eden

Medium (/High).

He resumed gelded on the back of only 1x JO where we were on him in a 3YO HCP race in a Wed race but he was no match for the stakes performed Doull.

He ran the meetings 4th fastest L400m and 2nd fastest L200m over the 1000m there and ran past Soju Session who had won a BM58 before that, which is super form for him dropping back to a MDN here.


He'll take a stack of improvement from that having only had the 1x JO and he should be running supe so we'll be backing him here.

A bonus if you got the $5 ($4.10 post deds) yesterday but still think the ~$3 is nice and expect him to start closer to favourite.


If you want to be safe, it's a genuine race between two with BIG WATCH with the blinkers going on and barrier 1, so he would be the saver but think Walter Spur is the one to beat anyway.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 2

#4 CLOCK STRIKES (8) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

BlackBook jump out comments:

CLOCK STRIKES has led in all of his work (including his sole race start) and his win in Heat 12 on Feb 27 was no different, given a push late as he won in very slick time. He jumped out super prior to his debut that was a touch disappointing, so he was given more time and has had the ultimate gear change of becoming a gelding. He’ll be leading first up this prep and be in it a long way.

Pakenham, Race 2

#5 STANDUPANDFIGHT (5) - G & P Dalziel

BlackBook jump out comments:

Looked like the blinkers were on for STANDUPANDFIGHT and they clearly switched him on, the 3yo gelding winning Heat 8 on Feb 20 quite comfortably as he extended away and put a big gap on 3rd place, clocking the third fastest time of the morning in the process. Only his first jump out back this prep so we’ll follow him into another bit of work.


The blinkers have gone on for STANDUPANDFIGHT in both of his jump outs and they looked to have improved him a bit. He won a Feb 20 jump out in the third fastest time of the morning and backed that up with a solid 3rd placing in Heat 12 on Feb 27 behind Clock Strikes as he went to the line alongside the talented (and recently gelded) Fasuto. He’ll need to find the right maiden, but he’s got a win in him for sure.


After jumping out with the blinkers on in jump outs on Feb 20 and Feb 27, the blinkers were off for STANDUPANDFIGHT in Heat 9 on Mar 6 but the 3yo gelding still looked quite impressive. He was a bit slowly away, but thought he still looked to move really nicely as a he closed off under minimal pressure throughout. As we’ve mentioned a few times now, he’s got a maiden win in him for sure.


*blinkers are on here for raceday.

Pakenham, Race 2

#9 FREE WILLED (9) - C Alderson

BlackBook jump out comments:

Have liked the way FREE WILLED has gone about her jump outs. As mentioned a couple weeks ago, she has made her way to the Alderson yard following two NZ trials on Nov 3 and Dec 6 where she certainly looks to have some talent. She was 2nd in a Feb 13 jump out before backing them up in Heat 14 on Feb 27 where she sat in behind the leaders throughout the heat until late as they were pushed out and she was still cruising, checking off heels as she then closed nicely in the final 200m. She’s a nice mover and a big watch on debut here.

Last Updated: 7:46am AEDT on Friday, 10th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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