Previous rail was in the true position, now being pushed out to the 4m (entire circuit). The Randwick surface has been superb this spring and I don't expect anything different from this meet. There will be no 'go to' lanes here.
The main influences on the winning patterns will be the wind and the rain. Winds up to 30km/h North, North-Easterly should be mostly protected by the Randwick grandstand, however if it becomes more easterly it becomes a head-wind in the straight. I expect that they will come wider on the track, towards grandstand in the straight, to ensure protection from the wind. Down the back it will be a tail wind which helps those up front a little more. Then down the side the horses on the inside will cop it. Place to be will be in that 2-wide running line and peeling wider on the track.
There is rain expected on the day, with 10-20mm being the forecast. Has not been much rain in Sydney recently so this should be good for the track I don't expect the track to get worse than a Soft6, as most of the rain predicted is later in the day. If there's more than 10mm on the day during the races, it will chop up and we could easily get into that heavy range. If the rain falls, it is likely we see them come wider as the meet goes on.
My feel is on-pace will be the place to be, if the rain comes, particularly later in the day. If not then we will se the track play very even and as per the recent meets, race-pace and shape dependant.
RACE 3: AMD BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200m)
THE BOPPER showed serious pace at Canterbury last start and is the likely leader. PRIVATE CHEETAH pushes across as well and should lob outside of THE BOPPER or OCEAN EMPEROR who will box-seat. BALLISTIC LOVER will be forward of midfield as well. DESTINATION I'd say will be ridden slightly cold and settle worse than midfield, despite the good gate. Likely settles outside of TOMMY GOLD so that he isn't trapped waiting for runs. ON THE LEAD tracks him right into the race from last.
Predicting an even speed here with the bopper out front, should run them along and get going early in attempt to break their hearts. Should give most horses a chance, if good enough.
With the small field and genuine tempo, most of the field maps really well. Of those, the best positioned horses are probably THE BOPPER, BALLISTIC LOVER and PRIVATE CHEETAH. As always in small fields being on-pace is a huge advantage, and they're the map horses. OCEAN EMPEROR also has a good map and with gaps can be competitive. DESTINATION follows the right horses into the race so is a neutral runner and although far back, ON THE LEAD can get a nice tow from DESTINATION and is also a neutral runner.
There looks to be only one disadvantaged runner in my eye and that's TOMMY GOLD. His pattern is to settle back and from gate-1 will be on the inside and will need a heap of luck searching for gaps. In a heap of trouble if he doesn't find them.
Going away from the usual grain of my write-up's here and am going with the class in the race over the map horses. That class is ON THE LEAD and DESTINATION. ON THE LEAD was beaten 1.8L 2nd to CRIADERAS when on the inferior ground and held up at stages - probably should've won or finished closer. He also has a 2.0L 2nd to WILD RULER off a very-slow tempo, over running OSAMU and DOUBTLAND. OSAMU has since finished 2nd over 1400m (unsuitable distance) which has franked the WILD RULER form line. The other horse who has the WILD RULER form line is DESTINATION who, if afforded room at key stages, likely beats WILD RULER. In that same race FORBIDDEN LOVE (who saluted for keen JumpOuts readers last week) has since come out and franked that form. In addition to that, DESTINATION matched motors with PRIME STAR who recently tested PELTZER in the Stan Fox. I'm happy to be against THE BOPPER who I'm confident will find these too good.
Hard to split ON THE LEAD and DESTINATION, getting into that soft range would be advantage ON THE LEAD. On the map DESTINATION is slightly more favoured. Could 2-bet play this race and come out on-top.
RACE 6: BAR 83 BONDI STAKES (1600m)
Predicting STREET DANCER to press and lead from out wide. REAL PEACE settles inside of PELTZER and both will be happy to hand up, not too easily though. ELIZABEEL over this longer distance likely will be happy to find a spot, ACROPHIBIC from gate-1 is likely closer than usual also. STYLEBENDER and THERMOSPHERE slot in midfield and PRIME STAR probably goes back from the wide gate. RED STILETTO has no early speed and will be on the rails at the rear. NAMAZU is the interesting runner, could be last due to the barrier or could go forward, which I'd like to see. Regardless I don't think his settling position changes the map too much.
STREET DANCER has shown the propensity to roll along at an above average tempo, from wide out I can see this being the case again - fast tempo seems likely. This likely makes it a test and could end up being a survival of the fittest.
Sweet spot in races ran like I've predicted here are midfield. Map horse therefore, is probably THERMOSPHERE. 2-wide line and far enough off the pace to not have the sting taken out of her legs. PRIME STAR also get's a lovely run and maps well.
STREET DANCER setting a tempo is probably at a disadvantage. Those just off it (PELTZER, REAL PEACE, ELIZABEEL, ACROPHOBIC) are neutral, unless the can't handle it. STYLEBENDER and RED STILETTO on the inside are definitely disadvantaged, especially if those on-paced runners comeback into their faces. NAMAZU neutral also.
PRIME STAR gets his best chance here to turn the tables on PELTZER. After being 0.5L 2nd, but gaining on him in every stride, the rise to 1600m is ideal and with a bit more tempo on up front it can soften PELTZER up a little bit. Furthermore, he rose from 1200m-1500m last start and was allowed to be weak late. This time has the run under the belt at a similar distance and is ready to beat PELTZER - has him covered in my opinion. In making the case for PRIME STAR, same case has to be made for ACROPHOBIC who was far better through the line. However, PRIME STAR started his run earlier and had every right to be weaker through the line having an inferior platform compared to ACROPHOBIC. I think THERMOSPHERE is no chance and she's reaching the end of her campaign - two gut busters will likely have cooked her. NAMAZU is the x-factor but with questions on his map, happy to let him go. Can't have anything else here.
PRIME STAR gets the nod from me, think he's got everything in his favour. Win on heavy suggests all conditions suit which has me believing he's a bet.
RACE 7: DAILY PRESS THE NIVISION (1200m)
SWEET DEAL should lead. SEASONS presses forward from wide, as do BLAZING MISS, POSITIVE PEACE and probably ATHIRI. TRICKY GAL finds the fence midfield, with WANDABAA her outside. JEN RULES finds fence after ASHARANI was scratched. INSENSATA and EVALINA the last pair.
SWEET DEAL should be rated really well out front and will go pretty quick to try and get them all chasing. Likely fast tempo, possible slightly below fast.
I love SWEET DEAL leading against these, she will get it really nice out there ATHIRI and BLAZING MISS are the other two I'd consider map horses. WANDABAA may spot those two a bit of a start, but could slingshot out of the slipstream and be right in this - neutral runner.
TRICKY GAL on the inside sees no joy and I think INSENSATA, EVALINA and JEN RULES probably too far back given this will be run at consistently quick splits. Tough for backmarkers.
BLAZING MISS or ATHIRI seem to get the gun runs here. ATHIRI has been racing in sublime form winning her last two. Gets a great chance to do similar here. Form around HILO reads well and she handles the wet tracks. BLAZING MISS also trialled elite against SPACEBOY and then came out and won at Canterbury. WANDABAA is also racing super at the moment and she gets a decent chance.
Happy to stay out of this race, no betting prospects here. Would be with ATHIRI again though.
OTHER RACE COMMENTS
RACE 1 - FORUM GROUP KIRKHAM PLATE
Another 2yo race this week and it looks a real even sort of affair. To me, the market has missed a few here. In no order my top 3 selections are; 2-3-12-13. JUMBO GOAL was very good in a trial behind emerging star 2yo CAPTIVANT and didn't lose any ground on him after being held up. Still looks very green and so there's an element of risk to him. O'PRESIDENT was another one who was quietly ridden, but was super strong through the line - looked to have a few gears he could still go through. TANZIMAT also trialled really strongly, despite not winning any trials. She lead in her first trial and was headed on the line then went straight past winner after the post. In her second trial she was cruising in behind horses who were being ridden out.I have hedged these three to return an equal sum, however will not be making this a play for the JumpOuts. Take at your own discretion.
RACE 2 - TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP
Always a race I look forward to the highways! Again not much detail from me here, and I'll be letting it go through to the keeper. LEARDO can run well at double figure odds.
RACE 4 - ROBRICK LODGE FILANTE HANDICAP
I'm firmly in the camp that CRIADERAS is the main winning chance here and should win. Should he be odds-on, I'm not so sure. RANIER is the proven class runner of the field, although giving 10kg to CRIADERAS has to be the main danger. Would be taking one of those two and nothing else, with CRIADERAS as the best winning chance.
RACE 5 - CLUBNSW CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP
Tough race to really decipher - a lot of non-winners. If the track stays dry, then GIRL TUESDAY looks a great bet. She was super making a mid-race move to sit outside leader, but was subsequently beaten 4.3L in Group 1 - The Metrop. This was her first run at 2400m for the prep, rising from 2000m, and will be fitter for that run. Drops well back in class and finds a winnable race here. Race gets a little trickier on a wet surface, GIRL TUESDAY doesn't go on it. Would side with the favourite DJUKON and could speck CUTADEEL at odds. Happy to let this race go without a bet though.
RACE 8 - SOUTHERN CROSS HANDICAP
Another stinker of a betting race here, really tough for me to find an angle. Don't min the look of HILO, especially if ATHIRI wins again. He's definitely a winning hope. If the track gets really wet then i reckon INANUP could be the bet. However, I'm happy to stay out of this.
RACE 9 - SHARP FIT HANDICAP
ICEBATH looks to have found a winnable race here, but like my old friend LYRE always finds bad luck and is hard to trust. If the rain comes she could be a serious bet and even if it doesn't she has to be treated with respect. Tommy Sherry claims 3kg as she comes off a 2.1L 5th to FLIT in the Silver Eagle which is fabulous form for this. Issue is she could just get too far back and not get the gaps when she needs them. VEGAS JEWEL another of my old friends just isn't winning at the moment, so I've binned her. PETRONIUS and FORTRESS COMMAND have bad draws so happy to be against them. INVINCIANO and BETCHA FLYING are probably my main dangers to the favourite ICEBATH. OCCUPY at a big price is also one who could run real well as I see a fair amount of pace in this race.
BETTING STRATEGY & TOP PICKS
RACE 1 - JUMBO GOAL, O'PRESIDENT and TANZIMAT (no bet)
RACE 2 - LEADRO (no bet)
RACE 3 - DESTINATION (5 units @ $2.60) - 4th by 4.8L at $3.11 / $1.80 at Betfair SP.
RACE 3 - ON THE LEAD (3 units @ $4.40) - 3rd by 4.6L at $4.26 / $2.30 at Betfair SP.
RACE 4 - CRIADERS with RANIER a danger (no bet)
RACE 5 - DJUKON or CUTADEEL (no bet)
RACE 6 - PRIME STAR (no bet)
RACE 7 - ATHIRI (no bet)
RACE 8 - HILO or INANUP (no bet)
RACE 9 - ICEBATH (4 units @ $3.30) - 1st by 4.0L at $2.52 / $1.44 at Betfair SP.
Total Unit Outlay = 12.00 units
Total Units Returned = 14.08 units
Unit Profit at Betfair SP = 2.08 units (overall unit profit with Moonee Valley of 10.12 units)
Betting Strategy has a max bet of 5 units. 'W' = Win bet, 'P' = Place bet, 'E/W' = Each-Way bet.
Speed Maps provided using Punting Form.
Analysis by @Max_Wills_.