THE TRACK
Rail stays in the true from the Manikato meeting. After the lack of rain at Moonee Valley last night, it all came during this morning, which has put the track into that Soft7 range, almost Heavy. The rain is forecasted to stop after race 1, likely be a Soft 7 by then. If it does stop, it is easily foreseeable that it stays a Soft7 and probably receives an upgrade to a Soft6 later, if we are lucky. We could easily see a Heavy track if the rain keeps coming. To me, the rain will likely cause the inside of the track to be a bit off, the rails can be off due to the drainage at Moonee Valley. Think the place to be will be 2-wide running line 2-3 pairs off the lead.
Wind is supposed to get up to 30km/h, however it is a South Westerly, which the Moonee Valley grandstand will protect the track from. Don't expect this to impact on the racing much, if at all.
RACE 3 - PFD FOOD SERVICES RED ANCHOR STKS (1200m)
THE MAP
MILDRED has the pace to lead, suspect that BELLA NIPOTINA will sit on her outside, which could put FREE TO MOVE 3-wide. TARCOOLA DIVA starts better than last start and likely box-seats. ICE ICE BABY sits outside PORTLAND SKY with ROCK THE RING behind them. RHODE SCHOLAR and VALAQUENTA will be the last two.
Not sure on the pace here. I doubt BELLA NIPOTINA and MILDRED let free to move cross, so they will kick up and ensure a truly run race. Even to fast looks the most likely speed range.
ADVANTAGED
BELLA NIPOTINA, being on-pace and off the fence looks to be the map horse, even if she settles one out and one back, map horse. ICE ICE BABY gets an okay spot midfield and if FREE TO MOVE can slot in outside leader or one out one back - also a map horse.
DISADVANTAGED
TARCOOLA DIVA, PORTLAND SKY and VALAQUENTA on the fence don't get a great go. Will be on inferior ground and searching for runs. ROCK THE RING and RHODE SCHOLAR get too far back in my opinion.
THE PLAY
BELLA NIPOTINA just looks the bet of this race. Her map is great and she goes well on the soft track. Form around SWATS THAT reads well as it ties in nicely with SEPTEMBER RUN who has demolished the other fancied runners; PORTLAND SKY and VALAQUENTA in previous races. To my eye, she was flat after she competed in the brutally run Moir Stakes and will benefit from the softer run last start and be back near her best. Main danger looks to be free to move who was gusty last start. He beat ENDANGER who since came out and won over 1400m at Caulfield last Saturday. Endanger should've won their encounter though, so I query how good FREE TO MOVE is. PORTLAND SKY gets a horror run on the fence and VALAQUENTA likely too far back.
Have to be with BELLA NIPOTINA with a decent bet.
RACE 4 - LEXUS FILLIES CLASSIC (1600m)
THE MAP
Tough race to map, MISS INBETWEEN should lead and YES BABY YES to take the sit outside of her. INCREDULOUS DREAM to box seat, followed by MUSSENPHERE who i have in the one-one. THERMOSPHERE a little way back on the inside, MISS MADEC, QUEEN OF ROCKS and LA MARSA round out the field. ECUMENICAL is the interesting runner, she could go forward and be leading or outside it, or be back, even cast 3-wide. She's hard to map.
Predicting another even tempo here, and MISS INBETWEEN to control the speed. YES BABY YES, with Craig Williams on could dictate however.
ADVANTAGED
Love the spot that MUSSENPHERE gets to, looks the map horse. MISS INBETWEEN if she finds the lanes and doesn't use the fence should have a good run. YES BABY YES is the other who I could kick up for from a map perspective.
DISADVANTAGED
INCREDULOUS DREAM, THERMOSPHERE and QUEEN OF ROCKS on the inside disadvantaged. LA MARSA probably a tad too far back. ECUMENICAL I can't conclusively comment on.
THE PLAY
I can't take either of the fillies out of the Caulfied Guineas. That race was ran ridiculously fast and I suspect on the Soft ground they both put in a flat run. Not sure staying at the distance after that is a winning formula. MUSSENPHERE brings a bit of x-factor to this race coming out of a huge maiden win. She maps really well and gets up to a distance which is likely to suit. MISS INBETWEEN has a really nice form line to me, around her last start against EMBOLISM. CONFRONTATIONAL, who was 3rd, subsequently came out and won at Geelong on Wednesday, and if she finds the right lanes leading she will be hard to run down.
Taking on ECUMENICAL and THERMOSPHERE here, happy to be with MISS INBETWEEN or MUSSENPHERE, they can definitely cause a stir.
RACE 5 - POWERFLO SOLUTIONS STAKES (1600m)
THE MAP
GREYSFUL CLAMOUR to lead them up. PARADEE has to roll forward or could be 3-wide, possibly last. SOVEREIGN AWARD gets the one-one, whilst SHROUDED IN MIST is off-pace on the inside. I AM ELOQUENT and RED HEELER pair off, BONVICINI next. DANZDANZDANCE, BENETOITE and MY PENDANT settle last.
GREYSFUL GLAMOUR usually rolls along, but given it is wet, I can't see that being the case. That's why I see PARADEE rolling forward. That will force GREYSFUL GLAMOUR to kick up to hold. Expect a just below even tempo.
ADVANTAGED
Map horse is easily SOVEREIGN AWARD, who will get such a soft run and has draw perfectly. PARADEE outside leader is a decent spot. I AM ELOQUENT and BONVICINI also get okay runs.
DISADVANTAGED
Again, those on the inside; SHROUDED IN MIST, RED HEELER, DANZDANZDANCE and MY PENDANT, have no joy. BENETOITE maybe too far back but can get to the outside.
THE PLAY
SOVEREIGN AWARD is a super chance to make it three in a row. Maps perfectly and is really the only horse in the field to go on wet tracks, outside of BENETOITE, DANZDANZDANCE and MY PENDANT who will settle well off her. Her last win, against the pattern was super brave and held off some top quality fillies. PARADEE definitely improves and this seems to be a target race for her, therefore I expect her to be there about's. Wet track is the main query and if she settles behind SOVEREIGN AWARD, don't think she's much of a chance.
For those reasons, SOVEREIGN AWARD just looks an easy bet and although favourite, is at a price I'm happy to bet on.
RACE 10 - LADBROKES CROCKET STAKES (1200m)
THE MAP
One of MELBA STORM and MAHA should lead. LA MEXICANA and PRETTY ROSA should on-pace. MINHAAJ RAISON D'ETRE come next. HIGHLY DISCREET settles inside midfield. STELLAR PAULINE is off-midfield, probably off the fence and WEGOBAM, QUILLER'S DELIGHT, TWAIN'S EXPRESS and JOEY'S GIFT settle any order at the rear.
Looks a bit of pace here and I expect an above average tempo, probably closer to even than fast. Maha knows no other way and will likely result in MELBA STORM kicking up.
ADVANTAGED
LA MEXICANA just is the map horse, wide gate is a slight concern, but the field will spread out off a decent tempo and she will slot in. Even if she doesn't, 3-wide on pace won't be a shocker spot. PRETTY BRAZEN and MINHAAJ also find decent spots.
DISADVANTAGED
All horses on the fence, worse than midfield; HIGHLY DISCREET, WEGOBAM and JOEY'S GIFT all will have a horror run. TWAIN'S EXPRESS and QULLER'S DELIGHT will probably be too far back also.
THE PLAY
The best bet of the day here, LA MEXICANA should be winning this. She will find her rhythm on-speed and strike at the opportune moment. Trainer Sam Freedman says she adds 10L on wet tracks and she gets a heavy today. She has already beaten MAHA this prep, on a dry track, and the wet track swings things more in her favour. Not much else has shown ability on wet tracks. TWAIN'S EXPRESS is one who has but will be well off LA MEXICANA.
Easy bet, best bet of the day. She swims, has Jamie Kah on... what more could you want?
OTHER RACE COMMENTS
RACE 1 - STRATHMORE BENDIGO BANK HANDICAP The market has got this race spot on in my opinion. ANCESTRY deserved favourite, and now with the rain falling, JUNGLE EDGE is the only danger. I doubt we are getting right into that heavy range at race 1, so ANCESTRY looks like he just wins. Short price, seems one for the multi's if anything.
RACE 2 - INGLIS BANNER
Wasn't too keen to play in the 2yo this week, looked a tough race. However, the boys have you sorted and I reckon you'll find a winner from their preview here.
RACE 6 - DRUMMOND GOLF VASE
Market seems to be completely with YOUNG WERTHER, and I can't disagree - should be odds on favourite. He should be undefeated and looks to be top-seed for the Victorian Derby. Main concern would be this rain and whether he gets through that Soft-Heavy going. From a breeding stand point, being out of Tavistock, they usually go very well in the wet. I think you can bet with confidence here.
RACE 7 - SCHWEPPES CRYSTAL MILE
Tough little race, don't have an angle at all here. Hard to go past the fave HOMESMAN, do also think DR DRILL is a good go. They both have the best wet form. Happy to stay out of this, would lean HOMESMAN, who should settle outside DR DRILL and be away from the rail, if i had to bet.
RACE 8 - MCCAFE MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP
Rain has hit, 53kg with Jye McNeil riding super at the moment, POLLY GREY looks a great value play. Loves the wet and her form around FUTURE SCORE and ORDEROFTHEGARTER reads very well here in my opinion. She hasn't put a win on the board this prep but this looks her right race. Think she's the right bet here, would've liked to have seen closer to $10 to get me interested.
RACE 9 - LADBROKES COX PLATE
The soft track likely swings the ARCADIA QUEEN vs RUSSIAN CAMELOT battle back in RUSSIAN CAMELOT's favour. However, I'll be leaning away from them and will indulge in some Sydney form. PROBABEEL coming out of a super EPSOM victory is my pick. Platforms super to 2000m and definitely gets the distance. She goes real well on wet tracks. She has drawn gate-2, but has MASTER OF WINE drawn her inside which should afford her an off-pace spot off the fence. She's got a light weight and definitely the class to go well here. She's my top pick. Respecting RUSSIAN CAMELOT, who's the other with exposed Australian form who I'd consider. Not too sure on these internationals, happy to back against them, however the soft track brings them right into it.
BETTING STRATEGY & TOP PICKS
RACE 1 - ANCESTRY (no bet)
RACE 2 - check out @TheJumpOuts Preview and Plays here.
RACE 3 - BELLA NIPOTINA (4 units @ $3.70) - 2nd by 0.75L at $4.30 / $1.79 at Betfair SP.
RACE 4 - MUSSENPHERE or MISS INBETWEEN (no bet)
RACE 5 - SOVEREIGN AWARD (4 units @ $3.70) - 1st by 0.75L at $2.96 / $1.42 at Betfair SP.
RACE 6 - YOUNG WETHER (5 units @ $2.15) - late scratching.
RACE 7 - HOMESMAN (no bet)
RACE 8 - POLLY GREY (no bet)
RACE 9 - PROBABEEL (no bet)
RACE 10 - LA MEXICANA (5 units @ $2.80) - 1st by 0.10L at $2.64 / $1.48 at Betfair SP.
Total Unit Outlay = 13.00 units
Total Units Returned at Betfair SP = 21.04 units
Unit Profit at Betfair SP = 8.04 units (overall unit profit with Randwick of 10.12 units)
Betting Strategy has a max bet of 5 units. 'W' = Win bet, 'P' = Place bet, 'E/W' = Each-Way bet.
Speed Maps provided using Punting Form.
Analysis by @Max_Wills_.
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