Forecast leading up to Saturday doesn’t have it raining too much and if it does, then it’s quite windy, which would likely dry out the track (barring any torrential rain). Therefore, I am certainly expecting the track to start a GOOD4. On the day there’s a slim chance of 1-5mm, which could get us into that SOFT5 range, but I’d be pretty confident in a GOOD4 the entire day.The biggest issue will be the N-NW winds. Average winds expected are around 30km/h and gusts up to even 50km/h could wreak havoc.
The 1400 and 1600m (Races 3/6/8) chute races will be the most impacted by these winds as when jostling for spots they will be doing so into a head wind for the first 200-600m. I’d say the winners of those races will be the ones who have cover early and probably no worse than midfield due to cross-wind in the straight.
In the straight races (1000-1200m – Races 1/2/4) the wind will be a cross wind, slightly from behind. Horses with inside barriers will be protected from that wind and, generally speaking, leaders and on-pace runners will be advantaged.
For the longer races (5/7/9) the leaders won’t face the head-wind for very long so I don’t see them being too advantaged, however similarly to the other races on the day, if too far back horses will likely struggle.
RACE 2 - SEPPELT WINES POSEIDON STAKES
*Note: ITZHOT and PIONEER RIVER likely to race at Moonee Valley on Friday*
I think they’ll come middle of track or the grandstand side, as the grandstand will protect them from the wind. WISDOM OF WATER and ISLAND JOY lead, MILDRED a tad behind them. MAHA and FOREVER FREE settle off-pace with SEPTEMBER RUN and PORTLAND SKY midfield. VALAQUENTA and MINHAAJ near the back and ITZHOT and POINEER RIVER last. WISDOM OF WATER knows no other way but to go fast so I’d say this will be ran well above an even tempo.