BlackBook - Wednesday, 9 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 9 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
HAWKESBURY - Race 2
It’s hard to believe that #2 NULLIFY is a 14-start on the back of her work in Trial 7 on Oct 28 over the 1050m, she was a clear class above. The 4yo mare got a lovely trailing position through the heat, showing a tremendous turn of foot over the final 300m or so as she pulled out, she put a good 3L on those leaders in a matter of strides and with absolute ease. Not sure what to make of her considering her record but she has always been consistent and this was a lovely return off a 12-week let up. Worth following this mare first up.
HAWKESBURY - Race 3
#7 JOYRIDER is a 3yo Snitzel colt that was purchased by Amanda Turner on the Inglis Online Sale after being a $800k purchase for James Harron only 18 months earlier at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Sales in 2021. He was 2nd on debut to Zou Sensation (who was then 3rd in separate LR back-to-back) before finishing 3rd to Fast Witness (won a LR race next start). He’s had an 11-week let up whilst being sold, returning in Trial 14 where he led from start to finish and did so quite comfortably in the end, clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process. He also clocking the second fastest L600m at 33.80s behind only Belluci Babe, those two being the only ones to click sub-34s L600m’s for the morning, which is very encouraging. He’s got a maiden win in him, no doubt.
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Hawkesbury, Race 2
#2 NULLIFY (1) - P & P Snowden
The 2nd horse from the trial has since ran 6th in a maiden, so the trial form is only fair from that and she is a 14-start maiden... but her trial was very very good so it's a really hard one to assess.
Trying to keep it simple, the trial was way too good to let her go around without something on so playing for a ½ stake.
Hawkesbury, Race 3
#7 JOYRIDER (2) - A Turner
Expect him to go straight to the front from barrier 2 and be the one to chase down and if he doesn't do that, he'd be in a bit of trouble early. Kathy O'Hara did that in the trial but she hasn't been setting the world alight as a jockey, going at only 4% for her L50 rides and only 6.4% for the L12 months.
Also would've preferred 1200m, not 1300m first up on the back of 1x trial.
Not keen to get involved here.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Bendigo, Race 2
#15 GHETTO SUPASTAR (8) - M Shepherdson
He was horrible in his first two career runs but they were as a 2YO on rain affected tracks.
His trial over 1000m on Oct 18 at Moe was good when 3rd behind Barclay’s Bank (who has since ran 2nd in a BM58) and the ridden out 2yo in Celestial Storm (who then ran 5th at Flemington on debut). He then went to Geelong on Oct 26 where he cruised out the back before closing super over the top to win quite comfortably in the end.
Jason Maskiell rode in the trial and sticks here for his sole ride of the day and he’s going at 20% for his L50 rides. At $26/$6, happy to have a small E/W bet.
Bendigo, Race 4
#5 CAUSE FOR CONCERN (13) - S Eden
This 3yo colt had a quiet Oct 10 jump out when 5th, but was then pushed out in his latest on Oct 24 where he won ahead of the very speedy I’mlovin’ya with a gap to 3rd. Like the way he responded to riding here and that bit of work will really bring him on for today.
Barrier 13 is a slight worry but at Bendigo it’s only out of a dog-leg type turn with a nice straight, so he will have plenty of time to get over the top if he’s within striking distance.
Happy to have a bet in a race that’s very winnable with no standouts - $8/$3 is a nice E/W bet.
Last Updated: 8:50am on Wednesday, 9th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1053x runners | 253x winners (24%) & 286x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.16 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 27x wins (44%) & 17x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (47%)
Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):