BlackBook - Wednesday, 9 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 9 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

#4 BRITISH COLUMBIA was never asked for an effort when 3rd in Heat 5 on Jan 17 (red), but the way the 3yo gelding moved looked really smooth and classy. He’s a son of Vancouver that’s a half-brother to the talented gelding Theanswermyfriend and looks to have returned in good order. Classy mover, one to keep an eye on with this being his first jump out back.

Backing up a nice Jan 17 return jump out, #4 BRITISH COLUMBIA backed it up with a very slick 1000m win in Heat 12 on Feb 1, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process that was even quicker than Heat 1 that included Group 1 stars in Sierra Sue and I’m Thunderstruck. He got a lovely spot on the inside with cover, popping out in the straight to get some clear galloping room as he showed a lovely turn of foot to get up and win. Expecting a much improved second career preparation, he looks to have returned in super order.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1 - BRITISH COLUMBIA

His form from his jump outs and first up run are impeccable.

His first jump out on Jan 17 when 3rd we’ve seen Ultravox (1st) since 2nd and 1st in MDN’s, Highground (2nd) since 3rd (behind him) and 2nd in MDN’s, Ancient Girl (4th) since 1st BM64 and Set The Sails (5th) since 3rd and 1st in MDN’s. From his second jump out, we’ve seen Over Boost since win a MDN and they gapped 3rd that day, being Miss Havana Cosmic who has since finished 2nd in a MDN…

From the first up run, they gapped Highground (above) by 5L where Silly Salmon had his measure late and has since ran 3rd in a BM64 at Moonee Valley behind Elite Icon.


This is tougher than the first up run though but the step up from 1200m to 1400m certainly suits. First up he ran +2.1, which is the second best last start rating and the second best peak rating of the race.


MATSUKAZE ran +6.3 first up and improved as he stepped up to 1300m with a -0.7 rating when 2nd to Dream Inherit with that run being the best last start and best peak rating of the race. The step up to 1400m third up looks suitable.

JENNIFERENTI ran in a BM70 over 1400m in only her second career run when 3.2L off Lavish Girl, the winner of a Group 2 a couple weeks ago ahead of Argentia... that's nice form for a Wednesday maiden. She's only had the one jump out ahead of her return and steps straight to 1400m with the new stable having previously been with EJ.


GLINT OF HOPE looked the class horse and main danger, who has now been scratched and pretty happy to back in BRITISH COLUMBIA now. Think he should be running real well here and draw's beautiful to get a soft run - hoping he goes forward from barrier 2.

The ~$2.50 looks fair, wouldn't surprise to see him shorten closer to ~$2. There is also a bonus back offer (up to $50) on TAB if you back the Tote.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Sandown, Race 1

BRITISH COLUMBIA ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.40 (TAB and Bet365)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -11.94 units at Recommend Price | +24.38 units at Betfair SP

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