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BlackBook - Wednesday, 8 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 8 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOE - Race 3

OTHER

#9 HUMMING was a $1.95M purchase and she’s showing a bit of talent at the jump outs, finishing 2nd to Ruthless Dame while ahead of The Fortune Teller and Greece in Heat 6 on Jan 19 after travelling very wide throughout. Lovely first jump out this prep.

The $1.95M filly in #9 HUMMING showed her lovely turn of foot again in Heat 16 on Jan 31. She was away well, but was taken back in the early stages from out wide to be a clear last as they approached the bend where she picked up, got to the outside and then was asked to extend a little late by Damian Lane and that she did, finishing really well and doing her best work past the line. Her closing speed was similar to her Jan 16 where she went to the line behind Ruthless Dame while alongside The Fortune Teller, so there doesn’t look to be any doubt on her talent and her breeding suggests that, a half-sister to Acrobat and Ennis Hill, the mum of impressive 2yo winner Learning To Fly on the weekend. Doubt they’ll be wasting many runs of a filly with that sort of page and on the back of her work, she’ll be going really well on debut in any maiden she goes.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 3

#9 HUMMING (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

High.

This is her race to lose following the scratchings of King's Chamber and Daicos, who looked the only major dangers. She's jumped out considerably better than the next three in the market behind her who are first up or on debut and then the fifth elect is Frostwood, a horse we've been on previously that has a race fitness edge but needs to improve a stack to win this.


Would be surprised if she lost this, so the question is now what price to take. We'll be backing her, but playing late and think anything ~$1.80+ is a good price to take.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Moe, Race 1

#5 PANTELONE (5) - J Cummings

BlackBook jump out comments:

PANTELONE was the clear pick of Heat 4 on Jan 20. The 2yo Street Boss colt was clearly the best away but they had no interest in leading, forced to take a sit along the fence and it certainly didn’t look like he enjoyed it with the mouth wide open. He travelled beautifully under a strong hold throughout where he had a rails run, but wasn’t asked to take it and just cruised to the line. He won a previous Jan 9 jump out easily where he was allowed to lead, so suspect when he debuts he’ll be going forward and on the back of these, he can go well.


No bet.

Warwick Farm, Race 2

#1 PEREILLE (5) - J Cummings

BlackBook trial comments:

PEREILLE was very costly for us in his debut prep, placing in all three runs without winning having been beaten by a combined margin of 1.38L. He was given a let up following his most recent one, returning for a very quiet trial on Jan 9 over 740m without the blinkers on, but once they went on in Trial 4 on Jan 24, there was no mucking around. He sat just off the leaders and then go to work in the straight once he was asked to extend, kicking away for a dominant win. He’s more than got a maiden win in him.


No bet.

Last Updated: 8:01am AEDT on Wednesday, 8th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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