Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 8 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SANDOWN - Race 1
Huge win by the 2yo Reward For Effort filly #5 RIPPLING BELLE in Heat 1 on Nov 29, her second jump out win this preparation and she looks to be travelling well ahead of her debut. Her jump outs have reminded us of Cindy Alderson’s Jigsaw jump outs from 2020…
SANDOWN - Race 2
#5 NEWLEY WED (7) - M, W & J Hawkes
NEWLEY WED has been showing some really nice closing speed in her jump outs to suggest she might have some talent. In both of her jump outs she’s sat in behind the speed before peeling out in the straight and closing over the top. She was 2nd in her first jump out on Nov 19 and backed it up with a 2nd in Heat 8 on Nov 26. This 3yo daughter of Savabeel looks to move really well and we’re keen to follow her into a debut, which looks close. She looks classy.
Sandown, Race 2 - NEWLEY WED
The two debutants in this race are our two runners. The rest of the field have all raced with the best last start rating coming from TEMPEST CHARM at +6.0. PERCEPTIVE with the blinkers going on could improve and run well second up. I AM ENCHANTING had the blinkers go on last start and arguably should've won, held up from the 500m to the 200m and getting out late to run the meeting's 6th fastest L200m when 2nd - probably the main danger. Was happy to risk SAVONIA.
NEWLEY WED is the key runner for us with Jye McNeil taking the ride from barrier 7. Really liked her jump outs and it wouldn't surprise to see her make her debut a winning one here. She looks talented - it also wouldn't surprise to see her start favourite and sub-$4.
Happy that our other runner got scratched and now happy to be with this filly on debut. Slightly scared of I AM ENCHANTING who looks the main danger, so want to have a small saver on him.
Warwick Farm, Race 2 - ALLUSIONIST & HAMAKI
Our original BlackBook comments for ALLUSIONIST were as follows:
Nov 9 (Rosehill) - beat a couple here that are better than maiden grade - showed tremendous gate speed to get straight to the lead and travelled strongly under a hold to hold on, nice 2L gap to 3rd as well - ran the fastest L600m of the day too (which is the key here) - can win a maiden first up.
Our original BlackBook comments for HAMAKI were as follows:
Nov 23 (Randwick) - second up was a 0.26L 2nd to Never Been Kissed who went on to win a CL1 and then a 1600m Group 1 - this colt was given a freshen up, returning here where he led and won under no pressure from Tommy Berry - he was hard held and looked to only be there for some fitness before returning to the races - can win a maiden first up.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.95 units.
Sandown, Race 2
NEWLEY WED ~ 1.65 units WIN @ $4.60 (TAB at 7:45am, Wed)
I AM ENCHANTING ~ 0.30 units WIN @ $7.00 (TAB at 7:45am, Wed)
Overall: +10.91 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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