Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 7 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
CANTERBURY - Race 2
Arrowfield look as though they’ve got a talented Snitzel filly in #8 ORZALA. She had a quiet Jul 26 jump out over 780m on the synthetic, sitting out the back of the field with J-Mac just cruising to the line on her out wide. It was her work in Trial 8 on Aug 19 over the 1045m that was super impressive, despite the time being the clear slowest of the morning. J-Mac stuck with the filly, getting a lovely run in behind the speed before displaying a lovely turn of foot late to win, really going on with it past the line. She was a $700k buy being out of the mare Norzita, a dual Group 1 winner of the 1600m Flight Stakes and 2000m Vinery Stud Stakes, so there will certainly be some expectations on this filly and she certainly looks to move well.
SANDOWN - Race 5
#7 WALTZ ON BY (5) - P Moody
WALTZ ON BY on flying at the jump outs ahead of her return. We mentioned her after her Jul 12 win over 750m where she led throughout and opened up a big margin over the final ~200m. She backed that up with a win in Heat 1 on Aug 3 over the 750m, cruising on speed throughout behind Squizzy Mizzy (who won a BM58 by 1.5L only 5-weeks ago) before then showing that superb turn of foot to get past her with ease while Millane was ridden out in 3rd and couldn’t keep up. She clocked 43.50s, which was 1.65s quicker than the next quickest time on the day and the second fastest time we have recorded for the 750m at Pakenham (Synthetic), behind only Oxley Road over 90x jump outs. If she heads to a mid-week maiden to get that maiden victory out of the way, she’ll be very awfully hard to beat. She’s very talented and jump outs could not have been any better ahead of her resumption. She’s $26 for the Thousand Guienas, a race her mum won…
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Canterbury, Race 2
#8 ORZALA (3) - J O'Shea
This is a very talented filly and it looks like it's just a matter of handling the wet track and beating Silvanito - can't see anything else in the race getting close to her. Her trials were super and John O'Shea said on Racing HQ (radio) that she is "the pick of the 3YO filly's" for him as well as saying she'll have the 3x runs this prep so wonder if she goes towards a Thousand Guineas in ~4 weeks (she's currently $101)...?
J-Mac doesn't get down to 55kg often, but he does to ride this filly here and we're expecting a big debut.
Sandown, Race 5
#7 WALTZ ON BY (4) - P Moody
Always been a big fan of this filly. She was a touch unlucky first up in a race much harder than this. She now gets out from 1100m to 1300m, which will certainly suit and she needs to win to go towards a Thousand Guineas - was hoping she went to a maiden for an easy kill, but she's here in a BM64 and she's better than this level. Have no doubt that if Waltz On By was in The Fortune Teller's maiden race, she would've won by 5L as well.
Can't jump off her and still very keen to follow her into a Thousand Guineas (hopefully) - backing her here and think ~$3 is about right, but we might be able to sneak better closer to the jump.
Last Updated: 7:52am on Wednesday, 7th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
681x runners | 205x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.26 WIN $2.31 PLC
975x runners | 225x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.49 WIN $3.06 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):