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BlackBook - Wednesday, 7 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 7 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

#2 KERMACETO (4) - G Begg

Liked the way KERMACETO closed into 3rd place in Heat 11 on Nov 7. Nice first jump out this prep for this 3yo filly, she’s worth monitoring into another jump out.

We mentioned KERMACETO following her Nov 7 jump out where she cruised into 3rd place, the 2nd placed horse being Daimyo who ran a 1.4L 4th on Saturday at Tatura when closing quite smartly from the back. Our filly though was back a the jump outs in Heat 17 on Nov 21, stepping up to 1000m and recording a very slick win. She jumped beautifully, settling just behind the leaders before getting some room in the straight and displaying a lovely turn of foot despite never actually being fully asked for an effort, going to and through the line quite smartly. A 3yo daughter of Kermadec that was a $45k purchase, she looks a lovely mover and we have to be with her on debut.


SANDOWN - Race 2

OTHER

The NZ import #3 RHEINBERG looked like a big boy as he took out Heat 16 on Oct 28, although it was only a field of three so it’s hard to get a real gauge. Only his first jump out too, so keeping an eye on him.

We mentioned the NZ import #3 RHEINBERG following his Oct 28 jump out win where he looked a big boy as he strode over the top, albeit in a small field. He was back at the jump outs in Heat 18 on Nov 11, jumping beautifully to take up the lead along the rail and cruising the line under a hold, winning with ease and in nice time for the morning. He moves well and can go well in his Australia debut.

A third jump out now for #3 RHEINBERG and he’s ready to go to the races and make his Aus debut. Following wins on Oct 28 and Nov 11 at Flemington, the 4yo gelding stepped out over 1000m in Heat 5 on Nov 22 where he travelled comfortably 3-wide before cruising to the line under minimal pressure from Mick Dee, finishing a close 2nd as he was only nabbed late. He had the better of Siamese who was on his inside, a last start winner over 1400m, which is nice form to hold him in good stead for a maiden. He’s travelling well and will go well first up in Aus, happy to be following him.


We were on #13 DELICATE BABE on debut where she just couldn’t overcome the wide barrier, going down by 0.1L to Fancylanski (since won again at Geelong), but put a nice 2.25L gap on 3rd and there was a huge 7.65L gap to 5th, who has since ran 3rd. She’ll take plenty of improvement from that run having been at 1400m and her work in Heat 2 on Nov 29 was a lovely tick over jump out in between runs that we like to see, bolting in over the 1000m. She’s now with John Leek Jnr having taken over the Peter’s runners and she should go well in almost any maiden she pops up in second up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1


#2 KERMACETO (4) - G Begg

Medium.

G Begg has two runners in this race but interestingly enough, Jordan Childs is on the Corstens runner. Michael Dee takes the ride on our filly though and has had the 50 rides for Begg for 11 wins (22% SR). She was entered in at Geelong last Wednesday but was scratched after Logan McNeil (who’s riding the stablemate in this race) couldn’t take the ride.


This is a nice little maiden but happy to be with our filly here at a solid price. The horse that ran 3rd in her jump out has since ran 2nd and although she doesn’t have the benefit of race fitness, she does have the benefit of a day at the races from last week.

Shanghai Venture is the one to beat being at peak fitness with solid form on the board, but our filly can run a big race on debut and happy to be with her at the ~$5.

Sandown, Race 2

Backing DELICATE BABE (~$5) and saving on RHEINBERG to breakeven. Smullen (whose been gelded) is the blow out result but taking him on.

#3 RHEINBERG (11) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

This gelding will certainly appreciate all of the 1400m on debut here. He’s had the 3x jump outs and trials as he does look like a big boy that might need this run to really bring him on and as a result, he could be one to follow second up over 1600m.

#13 DELICATE BABE (8) - J Leek Jnr

Medium.

She ran 2nd on debut to Fancylanski who then won a CL1 last Wednesday at Geelong by 1.2L - they gapped 3rd by 2.25L that day but that runner could only manage 8th at his next start (albeit by only 3.2L).

She’s had the 1000m jump out in between, a big win at Pakenham, and she will take plenty of improvement into her second career run here. Hefel sticks and she’s drawn a touch better with barrier 8. Think she's the one to beat now.

Last Updated: 7:30am on Wednesday, 7th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1080x runners | 261x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $11.98 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 74x runners | 31x wins (42%) & 19x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 65x runners | 11x wins (17%) & 23x placings (52%)

Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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