BlackBook - Wednesday, 6 July 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 6 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
SANDOWN - Race 1
#6 READ (7) - C Waller
We mentioned Chris Waller’s Iffraaj gelding READ following his 2nd placing in a Jun 10 jump out to Chalonne Princess, backing that up with his win in Heat 15 on Jun 24 where he lead from start to finish. He never got out of first gear here and just cruised to and through the line. He had this field covered quite comfortably, most of whom have won a race including Boadelle (8: 1-2-1) in 2nd, Canbya (7: 2-1-) in 3rd and Breton (13: 2-1-1) in 5th. He was a $50k purchase from the 2020 NZ Karaka Sales being out of an O’Reilly mare and we’re expecting him to go very well on debut.
He’s got race fitness, but #3 NATION PRIDE bolted in Heat 9 on Jun 20 over the 850m having come down from Richard Freedman’s stables in NSW. The 3yo Shalaa colt has had the 2x starts this prep, losing by a combined 1L when 3rd and 2nd on Heavy tracks over 1200m at both runs, so he’s been quite competitive and owners will certainly be hoping Price & Kent can get that maiden win, plus some more. Suspect he might be better over a bit more distance, being out of the mare Just Dancing who won a Group 2 over 1400m and was Group 1 placed in the 2000m Arrowfield and 4th in the ATC Oaks over 2400m. A colt to monitor first up in VIC.
#8 HYPOTHETICAL is a must follow into her debut now. We mentioned her after her first jump out last week where she won over 750m on May 18 in the fastest time of the morning, defeating ex-stablemate (and previous winner) Tea Master. We also noted that she jumped out back on Oct 21 in 2021 having been a $310k purchase from the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale, but her most impressive bit of work was her 4L+ win in Heat 9 on May 25. She showed great gate speed, put herself on the speed and absorbed the speed from around her as she sat there under a hold before cruising away from them with ease. She was a class above this lot and she looks as though she’ll be hard to beat on debut.
#10 SUGAR POP went to the line with Zac De Boss in a previous Apr 14 jump out - she was sent for a let up while Zac De Boss went on to finish 2nd in a BM78 before winning a BM70 at Flemington. She returned in Heat 11 on May 27 where she just cruised to and through the line under a hold. As mentioned previously, she suffered heat stress at her last start when a $1.60 SP favourite, so we can forgive that run and judge her on her debut where she was unlucky not to win when 3rd. Big watch this prep.
Another solid jump out from #10 SUGAR POP, finishing 3rd in Heat 5 on Jun 10 alongside better than maiden grade horses who have all broken their maiden previously. Much like her May 27 jump out, she went to the line under a hold where she was never fully asked for an effort. Quiet but nice jump outs will have this 3yo filly ready to go first up and she should go very close to breaking the maiden early.
Confidence - Comments
Please note, this meeting has been transferred to Canterbury on Thursday.
Sandown, Race 1
#3 NATION PRIDE (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
#6 READ (7) - C Waller
#8 HYPOTHETICAL (3) - A & S Freedman
#10 SUGAR POP (10) - C Jennings
Sandown, Race 1
Frustrating!!!!! We waited 4x days of no runners to then have 4x runners all run against each other - they would all be bets if they were in their own runners. In addition to our 4x runners, NICCONI EXPRESS was last seen running 2nd to Beau Rossa while ONLY HUMAN won well enough on May 30 at Cranbourne and the 2nd horse in that JO was SPINOZA. That covers 7x of the 9x runners here... so we're sitting this one out, watching and enjoying what is likely to be a really good form maiden going forward.
If we're doing numbers of our runners - HYPOTHETICAL on top ahead of SUGAR POP, READ and then NATION PRIDE. Would love to see a #BlackBook top four / trifecta.
Last Updated: 8:51am on Wednesday, 6th July 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
667x runners | 200x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.29 WIN $2.31 PLC
871x runners | 194x winners (22%) & 238x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.04 WIN $3.14 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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