BlackBook - Wednesday, 6 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 6 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 5

OTHER

#8 SUCCEED INDEED closed super to finish a close 2nd in Heat 10 on Mar 25, despite having some race fitness with the 5-week freshen up under her belt. She’s only won the 1x race from 16x starts, so she’ll be hoping to get another win on the board and on the back of this, she looks to be travelling well.


SANDOWN - Race 6

OTHER

#6 CONFRONTATIONAL was too classy over the 1200m in Heat 3 on Mar 30, winning comfortably under a hold ahead of the returning Ain’tnodeeldun and Aussie Nugget.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 5 - SUCCEED INDEED

This 4yo mare is a very interesting runner - she was good in her Oaks campaign and is Group 3 placed over 1200m (back in March 2020). This preparation (albeit with freshen ups in between) has been an interesting one. She finished 4.4L off a BM64 first up over 1300m at Sandown before stepping up to 1750m in a BM64 to finish 2nd after starting $4.80. She had a freshen up before stepping up to 2000m at Caulfield but failing. She then was $2.60 in a 1600m BM64 where she finished 2nd before a disappointing run at Moonee Valley in a CL1 when starting $4.60, however, she has subsequently undergone a throat procedure since that last run, so there are clear excuses for her.


She was entered in on Saturday but didn't get a run, popping up here in a BM64 with barrier 9 and Damien Oliver riding after riding her in the jump outs, which have been absolutely super. Her jump out that we highlighted saw her close really late and it's certainly worth noting that she didn't have the blinkers on there, which she wears here.


The big worry is where she gets to in the run as she's not a leader - hoping she sits midfield, who have a 10.9% winning SR (+2.1 P.O.T) at Sandown as opposed to only a 8.0% winning SR (- 23.5 P.O.T) for backmarkers.


Will be very interesting to see how she goes here over the 1400m and whether or not that throat operation has done her a world of good. We're getting $23/$5 to find out and happy to have a small E/W play.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

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OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.75 units.


Sandown, Race 5

SUCCEED INDEED ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $23.00 (TAB and Bet365)

SUCCEED INDEED ~ 0.50 units PLC @ $5.50 (Bet365)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +8.91 units at Recommend Price | +42.96 units at Betfair SP

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