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BlackBook - Wednesday, 5 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 5 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

The Pakenham future stars series has been a very good form reference and it looks like ORTEGA will follow that trend on the back of his jump outs ahead of his return. He didn’t do much in his first jump out on the synthetic track over 760m on May 29, but his talent was on full display in Heat 8 on Jun 12 as he the field up for 600m of the 800m jump out before then putting the field to bed over the final 200m as the jockey gave a slight shake of the reigns. He was a moral beat on debut in a good form race with Cobblestone Way (2nd), Dodi (4th), Crown Crusher (5th) and Mi Scusi (6th) all winning since while his second up run was a forgive as he had a degree of internal exercise‑induced pulmonary haemorrhage. He looks in good order and certainly has a maiden win in him.


Big fan of the Maher & Eustace trained Zoustar filly in GOLDEN ESTRELLA. This 3yo filly caught our eye in her Jun 12 jump out she travelled in behind the speed with not much room to go until very late over the final 100m or so when she came back to the inside and closed quite nicely. Stepping up to 1000m in Heat 17 on Jun 26, she was ridden with no urgency early as she dropped out the back but again closed superbly late but there was no problems with room to move here as she was under a very strong hold throughout but still doing her best work late. She looks a nice moving filly and keen to follow her on debut.


RANDWICK - Race 1

LISTENTOZOU is in super order ahead of his debut and love the way he goes about it. He caught our eye following a May 19 jump out where he closed superbly once he got some room late, doing similar in Heat 9 on Jun 2 where he cruised out the back before coming out wide and powering to and through the line despite being under a strong hold. If you keep watching past the line, he was still powering on and looked superb. A $350k Magic Millions purchase that has now had three jump outs with a May 5 jump out in addition to those mentioned, he looks a lovely mover and expect him to be running really well on debut wherever he goes.


MOUNT GAMBIER - Race 3

Liked the return of KIKUSUI in her first jump out back on Jun 1 when finishing 2nd while ahead of Runpukya who subsequently won by 5.5L in a Swan Hill maiden. She then stepped up over 1000m in Heat 5 on Jun 14 where she led them up throughout, but did her best work in the straight as she opened up a huge margin to win with ease. She’s always shown talent at the jump outs but couldn’t replicate that on debut so hoping she’s not a jump out star but she has only had the one career run so she’s worth keeping an eye on still.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1

Happy to double bet here - main bet on ORTEGA to collect 4u/4% and a saver on GOLDEN ESTRELLA to breakeven.

There are a fair few bonus backs available (TAB and Sportsbet, etc.) so look to back GOLDEN ESTRELLA first using those and then back ORTEGA.


ORTEGA (48.36s) and GOLDEN ESTRELLA (50.12s) both jumped out on June 12 over 800m, but as you can see from the times, ORTEGA was significantly quicker. He then ran at Caulfield over 1000m where he finished 4.2L off Flying On A Limb and Katsu, while GOLDEN ESTRELLA had another jump out but over 1000m.

They’re the top two to beat here and expect one of them to be winning but we’ve sided with ORTEGA due to that race fitness and step up to 1200m as opposed to the debuting GOLDEN ESTRELLA who looks like she’ll get out over further.


The query is that they’re both drawn quite wide, especially ORTEGA with barrier 12 of 12, but expect them to be running on late and really attacking the line.

#3 ORTEGA (12) - M Kent

Medium.

#7 GOLDEN ESTRELLA (10) - C Maher & D Eustace

Low/Medium.

Randwick, Race 1

#6 LISTENTOZOU (7) - C Waller

Low/Medium.

We were way too keen on this colt on debut to be jumping off after only the one career run - while he didn't set the world alight, he didn't have much chance out the back while the 1000m was clearly unsuitable. He potentially didn't like the Soft7 wet track either.


Chris Waller takes him up to Sydney now, gets him up to 1150m and we have to be with him again to really find out if he's any good.

We will be ½ staking here though, betting to collect 2%/2u as opposed to full staking for our other bets.

Mount Gambier, Race 3

#4 KIKUSUI (4) - T Dabernig

Medium.

Doubt she’s going to find any easier maidens than this. She’s always shown talent at the jump outs and just needs to bring that raceday (unlike what she did on debut) to be winning a race like this.


Drawn beautifully with barrier 4, she's got no excuses and should be winning.

Last Updated: 7:40am AEDT on Wednesday, 5th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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