BlackBook - Wednesday, 1 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 1 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 2
OTHER
Few to follow from Heat 13 on Nov 19. JUNGLE JIM looked very slick as he just cruised to win, while D Oliver stalked him throughout on the Extreme Choice filly #11 SWERVING who looked just as good having finished last in an Oct 27 Geelong jump out. The colt INTELLO STAR was then in behind Swerving and didn’t have much room to move but looked to have a lot to offer. All three of these are worth following.
GEELONG - Race 3
OTHER
#8 SNOW BUSINESS was 5th in Heat 2 on Nov 22 but it was the fastest 900m jump out of the morning and the four who finished ahead of her have all won at least one race. The un-raced 3yo filly would’ve gone close to winning any other jump out on the day.
Loved the way #9 SUGAR POP went through the motions in Heat 7 on Oct 10, travelling hard held throughout in behind the speed before getting a gap late as they crossed the line and then cruising to the front alongside Pitchanun past the line. The 3yo filly was a $90k MM purchase and had a previous jump out on Sep 17 when last, only thing is the other horses in this heat were Age Of Chivalry, So Si Bon, Yulong Command and Vilana… a pretty good jump out field for a maiden galloper. Caroline Jennings has had a few go well since moving to Flemington, expect this filly to be similar. Keen to follow.
OUR THOUGHTS
Geelong, Race 2 - SWERVING
TORONASAURUS REX is the clear pick of the four raced horses here, but we'd prefer to be on the debutants.
OUGHTON is a $900k colt and jumped out on the same day as SWERVING (Nov 19) in a stronger heat with the winner clocking 47.81s vs. SWERVING's 49.18s. Was happy to risk him on the back of his three jump outs.
LADY PANGLE was just okay at the jump outs.
BRINELL looks the main danger having won two jump outs heading into tis and has been scratched a few times searching for the right race to kick off in.
Good to see D Oliver riding in the jump outs and sticking for race day - he only has the two rides for the day and suspect this is the one he's come for. Barrier 2 is a lovely draw and think she's the one to beat. She's been heavily restrained in her jump outs and looks to have a lot more to give than what we've seen. Think she might go well and happy to be with her.
Geelong, Race 3 - SNOW BUSINESS + SUGAR POP
SUGAR POP brings in the best last start rating at +4.3 when 3rd on debut that day. She probably should've won - the difference between her and the winner was that the winner come up the rail and she went 5+ horses wide and around the field. She only lost by 0.4L. She's had a 4-week freshen up since while the 2nd horse from the same race, being ORDER OF GLORY, who was scratched from this race. Brett Prebble takes the ride with Ben Allen hoping off, and he's only going to Geelong for the two rides. Geelong will suit a bit more than Mornington as she did have to come from the back that day - expecting improvement here.
SNOW BUSINESS is the pick of the four debutants but prefer to side with the race experience here.
We think SUGAR POP can run well second up and looks the one to beat, but there is no value in the sub-$2 available. We'll have to let her go around with no bets - monitor her price, if she gets out closer to $3, then she's worth a bet.
Warwick Farm, Race 1 - BOOMSONG + KIPSBAY
Our original #BlackBook comments for BOOMSONG were as follows:
Nov 3 (Warwick Farm) - smart bit of work here by the half brother to Malkovich - was away poorly from out wide but had early speed as he pushed forward out wide and then came over the top of the leaders with ease in the straight, closing super and looked like he could explode if asked for an effort - looks talented.
Nov 16 (Warwick Farm) - potential nice horse here, winning both trials - pushed forward to lead by a big margin coming around the bend and just cruising to the line under a hold to win comfortably - was away a lot better here after being slowly away in his first trial - he was powering still past the line - he goes well, keen!
Our original #BlackBook comments for KIPSBAY were as follows:
Nov 9 (Rosehill) - gelded - this was super - he jumped well from the inside and easily could’ve led but was hard held to take a sit and as a result overraced - followed the leader the whole way until the final 200m or so where he popped to the outside and ate into the margin within a matter of strides with easy - clocked the fastest time of the morning and a nice L600m too - well bred, out of a city winning mare - big watch first up as a gelding, keen to follow.
KIPSBAY just looks to do too much wrong and we'd prefer to see.
BOOMSONG's latest trial was outstanding, one of the better trials we've seen. The issue is it was over only 786m, but he looked super. Barrier 8, should get a nice sit on a solid speed and then just come over the top late. Query on if he handles the Heavy track but his mum was 1 start on Heavy for 1 placing and he's quite well bred.
Happy to be with BOOMSONG, especially at the price.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 3.50 units.
Warwick Farm, Race 1
BOOMSONG ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.00 (TAB at 8:18am, Wed)
Geelong, Race 2
SWERVING ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.70 (TAB at 8:18am, Wed)
Overall: +11.46 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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