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BlackBook - Wednesday, 31 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 31 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 3

#1 RAINBIEL (5) - A Chibnall

Low/Medium.

She's much better than the BM78 grade she's in here, a grade she hasn't seen since Sep 2021 when she won first up at $1.70 SP. Her form has been a touch mixed since then but has had some excuses and on the back of 3x JO wins here, she looks primed to make a return to the races.


Drawn beautifully and love the 2kg claim to bring her down to 60kg as an 84-rater in a BM78.


Think she will run well and want to bet - will be ½ staking as she isn't an original BlackBook runner.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Mornington, Race 4

#9 AMANI (3) - P Carey

BlackBook jump out comments:

AMANI ran a big race on debut despite her $91 SP, finishing 4th with some super form all around her as 3rd, 5th and 6th have all won since. She then started at the other end of the market second up over 1400m as a $2.80 SP favourite and just had too much to do from the back as she closed off well but fell just short to finish 2nd. She was back to the jump outs for a mid-prep hit out and certainly didn’t disappoint, bolting in over 900m in Heat 10 on May 24 in the fastest time of the morning while doing it very easily. She’ll be peaking now third up and on the back of this, should be running very well.


She is third up here in a BM70 as a maiden... plus she's a backmarker on a tight turning Mornington track, albeit her home track but it makes it very hard to back her here.

Last Updated: 7:46am AEDT on Wednesday, 31st May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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