Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 3 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
KYNETON - Race 1
In only his first jump out back this preparation, the 3yo gelding #3 HALLOWED GROUND won Heat 4 on Oct 13. As he showed very good gate speed to go straight to the lead, he was restrained in the early stages and was well held throughout as the horse outside of him was hard ridden and no match at all. He ran good time for the day too. One to keep an eye on but hard to trust these country jump outs sometimes.
#3 HALLOWED GROUND certainly looks to have a motor under the hood, showing a nice turn of foot when asked for an effort to win Heat 16 on Oct 19 and to show a different dimension to his racing style than just being jump and run in his Oct 13 jump out. He led again here, but responded when asked for an effort in the straight by John Allen and clocked a nice time in the process. Happy to follow him into a debut, this was a nice bit of work.
KYNETON - Race 3
#3 SPIRIT DE LUNE looked to have a heap to give after going to the line completely untested having travelled in behind the speed throughout Heat 2 on Oct 7. The 4yo gelding ran well without winning in his first career preparation, placing in his first three career runs before something going amiss and then the rider not being happy with his action before a spell. Given time now and he looks to have returned well, albeit only one jump out back. Expect another bit of work prior to resuming, keen to keep a eye on him.
KYNETON - Race 6
The USA import #7 LIGHTHOUSE was an impressive winner of Heat 9 on Sep 27. It would’ve been hard to miss the big grey cruising throughout and extended to and through the line late. There is no profile for the horse though with nothing showing on Racing Australia either, so we’ll keep this runner in mind and keep checking for a profile to look further into.
Another nice jump out for the USA import #7 LIGHTHOUSE, the 3yo mare taking out Heat 6 on Oct 18 well after travelling wide throughout. She does have a record of 9 starts for 3 wins and 3 placings with $480k of prize money, so she’s certainly not short on talent but looks to be moving well ahead of her Australian debut.
Kyneton, Race 1 - HALLOWED GROUND
As expect, JUPITUS scratched with the poor barrier and leaves us with HALLOWED GROUND (also with a poor barrier) who has jumped out well and debuts at the home track. We're a bit worried about the barrier, but he looks to have enough talent to go closer here.
LADY VUITTON brings in the last start benchmark rating at +3.7, which is clearly above the second best rating of GULF OF ADEN at +10.4 and she gets the tongue tie going on here.
LIP SIP SUK and GALATHILION haven't been disgraced at the jump outs either, but just didn't quite make our reviews. They aren't without a chance at all.
If HALLOWED GROUND had of drawn in a bit more, we'd be a lot more confident on having a play on him. In saying that, his last jump out last preparation was alongside Madame Solario (who won by 2.2L first up) and he's come back with some really nice jump outs. He can run well so we'll have a low confidence play on him.
Kyneton, Race 3 - SPIRIT DE LUNE
His best rating last preparation came first up over 1400m when rating +6.7, which would have him competitive in this race but it doesn't give us a stack of confidence. He was a fair way back in a more recent jump out on Oct 19 at Avoca over 1000m, the winner of that heat being Category Five who then ran 3rd in a BM58 first up with a huge weight.
Think he looks an E/W chance in this race but we're not quite getting the E/W odds. Happy to not play and let him go around.
Kyneton, Race 6 - LIGHTHOUSE
We don't really want to be getting involved with an import first up in a BM84, but it's certainly worth noting that this 5yo mare has jumped out well heading into her Australian debut.
We'll let her go around with no bets, but one to keep in mind for Quaddie players.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 0.50 units.
Kyneton, Race 1
HALLOWED GROUND ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $4.80 (TAB at 9:33am)
Overall: - 3.65 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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