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BlackBook - Wednesday, 3 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 3 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



GEELONG - Race 2

#7 BEOUR BAY (4) - A Alexander

BEOUR BAY was a very clear last throughout the entirety of Heat 12 on Jul 21, absolutely cruising throughout until they approached the straight where she was asked to extend and closed superbly. She made up a lot of ground easily, finishing 3rd by only 1-2L but if you watch past the line, she was in front of the leaders. In typical Archie Alexander fashion, her first jump out on Jul 7 over 900m saw her very quietly ridden to finish 5th behind Port Louis. Her debut run was ridiculous, missing the start by some 5L+ and closed in the meetings second fastest L600m/400m/200m to finish a 0.4L 3rd even when held up - she should’ve won this. She was then 4th second up to Devout Hero with the likes of Bon’s A Pearla finishing 3rd and nice form reading from the race. Expecting her to go well first up, we just need her to not be a clear last and having to do too much.


OTHER

#10 SPRING VALLEY should feature prominently first up, his lovely win over 750m in Heat 11 on Jul 19 when coming from the back a nice bit of work to top him off for resumption. He was 2nd in a previous Jul 12 jump out over 750m as well, but settled a bit closer to the speed there whereas in the latest heat he settled a clear last and closed from the back. Last prep he failed to break the maiden but was placed in all four runs. He needs a bit of distance, likely 1200m to 1400m to really show his turn of foot and full potential.


The Price & Kent 2yo colt in #13 WHAT YOU NEED certainly moved well enough again to be one to follow. After his 3rd placing in an official trial on Jul 4 behind Shalaman and Tolpuddle (since 3rd MDN), the son of Supido went to the synthetic track and just cruised into 2nd place in Heat 4 on Jul 18. He travelled super wide throughout, going through the motions and really attacking the line. Like the way this colt moves and did everything under his own steam.


CANTERBURY - Race 2

#6 SPORTS LEGEND (8) - L Bridge

While De An Andretti clocked a very slick 44.86s, the un-raced 2yo gelding in SPORTS LEGEND clocked a slick 45.23s in only his first jump out, a 4.99L win in Heat 7 on Jun 14. The 2yo Deep Field gelding jumped beautifully, went forward and absolutely bolted in with ease. A $200k Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling purchase from 2021, he looks to have some talent for Bon Ho - huge watch!

Les Bridge look to have a nice 2yo gelding on his hands. We mentioned SPORTS LEGEND following his 4.99L win on Jun 14 where he clocked a slick 45.23s, noting he was a huge watch as a previous $200k Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling purchase from 2021 and he certainly furthered his credentials here. He stepped up to 1050m in Heat 3 on Jun 28 and won by 1.95L, clocking the fastest time of the morning, an easy 0.7s quicker than Forzanini earlier in the day. He did it over 780m first and now he’s done it again over 1050m, so he’s ready to head to the races and make a big debut, expecting Kerrin McEvoy to stick.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 2

Double bet on WHAT YOU NEED and BEOUR BAY, with a potential saver on SPRING VALLEY.

#7 BEOUR BAY (4) - A Alexander

Medium.

Her jump out was super and she's got nice form on the board as well - expecting plenty of improvement now for her second career preparation.

At $10+, we're very happy to have a bet.

#10 SPRING VALLEY (1) - P Moody

Low/Medium.

Prefer to be on What You Need and Beour Bay, which makes backing this mare hard to back. Either let her go around, or save to break even - wait until close to the jump to bet (if you are).

#13 WHAT YOU NEED (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

Good form from his first trial - 1st Shalaman (since 1st MDN & 2nd HCP), 2nd Tolpuddle (since 3rd MDN), 4th Bakersfield (since 4th MDN) and 5th Da Plane Da Plane (since 3rd MDN). Ben Melham is on board here from barrier 5 and he is airborne.

Think he could make a big debut here - hopefully a few got on the early price but if you didn't, we can still get $3.40 on TAB currently (look to take ~$3.50 late).

Canterbury, Race 2

#6 SPORTS LEGEND (8) - L Bridge

Medium.

Trials were super, but there hasn't been much form come from them, which is a bit of a worry. Happy to have a bet on him regardless, the trials were too good to ignore - he's the one to beat.

The race drops way due to scratchings now, with Magic Carpet the main danger.

Last Updated: 8:21am on Wednesday, 3rd August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

923x runners | 205x winners (22%) & 255x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.82 WIN $3.11 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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