BlackBook - Wednesday, 29 September 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 29 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 1
#4 LA ZUCCA (7) - L Tolson & L Proctor
We really liked LA ZUCCA prior to her debut, but she was just overran by Huskisson after leading throughout. In her return in Heat 8 on Aug 25 over 900m, she didn’t lead them up but instead sat wide at the end of the field before finding the gaps in the straight and really powering to the line with a bit in hand. This is only her first jump out back, but certainly think she has a maiden win in her as a 4yo. Want to follow her very closely.
#15 DELICIOUS TYCOON (6) - M Laurie
DELICIOUS TYCOON was smashed in betting first up ($2.70 SP), but ran really poorly. Immediately spelled, her return Aug 9 trial was also only fair but her jump out in Heat 5 on Aug 25 (black) was super as she closed from the back to finish 2nd. Not sure what to make of her work but she clearly goes alright when she’s up and going. One to watch for.
DELICIOUS TYCOON was absolutely massive in Heat 5 on Sep 8. Having closed super from the back on Aug 25, the 3yo filly did similar here as she was heavily restrained out the gates and throwing the head around as a result. She would’ve been a good 10L off the leaders, was given a push in the straight without being hard ridden and managed to finish less than 1L off the winner and was in front past the line. Huge run here and a couple of really nice jump outs. Hopefully she can live up to the expectations that were on her on debut as she started a $2.70 favourite.
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OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Geelong, Race 1 - LA ZUCCA & DELICIOUS TYCOON
Nice little race. We had CHART BUSTER as an 'other' runner after a nice Sep 3 jump out - he finished 2nd first up and was priced as favourite around the ~$2.50 mark that day. RUNAWAY RIVER was extremely unlucky not to win last start at Sale... has been racing very consistently and the maiden win can't be far away. Ratings wise, AND SHE WAS brings in the best last start figure while SEMILLA has the second best last start figure.
LA ZUCCA all but won first up, being nabbed right on the line to go down by a nose. She was first up at 1200m after only the one jump out - will be much better for the run now second up and sticking at 1243m here. She brings in the fourth best last start benchmark rating. Will lead from barrier 5 and give a huge sight here.
DELICIOUS TYCOON's jump outs were super. We were hoping she didn't get a run but she gets into the field and has drawn beautifully with barrier 4 to take as it in behind the speed set by LA ZUCCA.
Hard to split so we will back both LA ZUCCA ($4) and DELICIOUS TYCOON ($4.60 on TopSport before boost) for even returns and effectively get a price of $3-$3.50 for either of them to win. Happy to be on that for a small-medium bet - just don't want to be outlaying heaps.
Geelong, Race 3 - DE LA FAYETTE
Not a BlackBook runner but adding in this filly as an 'Other' runner as we think she's a good E/W bet here. She brings in the second best last start benchmark rating and she was a tragedy beaten that day... the step up from 1200m to 1443m here will suit and think the wide barrier (11) will also suit as she can get a spot without any traffic and come home strongly. Currently $12/$3.30 on TopSport, worth a small E/W go.
Randwick, Race 2 - ABLE WILLIE
ADDITIONAL RUNNER --> We're a huge fan of this gelding. He accepted over the weekend but was scratched with a poor barrier and pops up here in another MDN with barrier 2. We want to be with him here and think he's quite smart - trial notes below:
Jul 16 (Rosehill) - second fastest over time and second fastest L600m - was away terribly, but once picked up closed super along the fence, did well to finish within 3L of them - was bolting past the line, had plenty more to give - following for another jump out.
Jul 30 (Rosehill) - far from disgraced here when 3rd to Remarque, closed well - was away terribly but came home well wide over the top and hit the line with pace - if he can polish his starts, looks a nice horse.
Sep 14 (Rosehill) - gelded between trials - start certainly was better, but he was taken back for another super trial, finishing 3rd (again) under a strong hold- he is smart.
Thinking anything around $2.50 to $3 is a good price to take. Might be best to take Top Fluc on TopSport. Think he wins and very excited for his debut.
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