BlackBook - Wednesday, 28 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 28 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 4
#6 MEMPHIS SHADOW closed really well from last in Heat 8 on Dec 8 having been the clear widest runner around the bend and in the straight, he was still full of running late. He’s done this in previous jump outs too, closing well from a midfield settling position in a Nov 23 jump out over 900m at Mornington, the winner Shaime since running 4th at Moe. Keeping an eye on where this 3yo American Pharaoh gelding goes on debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Mornington, Race 4
#6 MEMPHIS SHADOW (5) - T Noonan
Slightly worried about his get back and run on style that he's shown in his latest two jump outs, but he was forward in his first jump out and do like that he's debuting at the home track, so expecting they'll be positive early from barrier 5 and look to take up a forward spot (not leading though). He can run a cheeky race here on debut.
We can get $8+ and happy to have a bet at that price.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Mornington, Race 4
#4 DAICOS (9) - P & P Snowden
BlackBook jump out comments:
DAICOS was a very easy winner of Heat 8 on Dec 9 and he clocked the fastest time of the morning despite being under a very strong hold all throughout. It was a lovely return jump out from the $350k Capitalist colt where it looked as though the blinkers went on so that along with the extra time, he looks in good order.
No bet recommended - latest JO on Dec 16 was only fair and he's been jumping out with blinkers, which he doesn't have on here, plus he's drawn barrier 9 of 10 at Mornington, a track you don't want to be wide when it's not your home track. We're with Memphis Shadow (above).
Last Updated: 7:40am on Wednesday, 28th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1113x runners | 273x winners (25%) & 304x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 44x runners | 26x wins (59%) & 12x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 86x runners | 36x wins (42%) & 23x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 81x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):