BlackBook - Wednesday, 27 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 27 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 2

#10 EXTREME EMOTION (1) - K Hann

A two time feature of our reviews from her jump outs back on Jul 6 and Jul 23, the now-3yo Kym Hann filly under the breeding EXTREME CHOICE x AURA D’ORO was back to the jump outs after a let up and again impressed, winning Heat 4 on Oct 12 in the fastest time of the morning. She bounced straight to the front here, cruising to the line under minimal riding and was only challenged late by the unraced Zedemski. Super bit of work and very keen to follow her into her debut and debut preparation.


Now named, EXTREME EMOTION put in another impressive performance following her previous jump outs on Jul 6, Jul 23 and Oct 12 under her breeding Extreme Choice x Aura D’Oro. She finished 5th in Heat 7 on Oct 19 over the 1000m, but she was never let out from a strong hold at any stage as the rest of those around her were given a niggle. She jumped beautifully, easily could’ve led but was restrained by the jockey to take a sit and just cruised throughout. She looked to be a really nice mover and was only jogging. A $150k purchase, she looks very talented and very keen to follow her into her debut.


OTHER

Super return for #2 APSARA, taking out Heat 9 on Sep 7 over 800m in the clear fastest time of the day. Unseen as a 3yo, she was unlucky not to break her maiden as a 2yo in three career runs. Expecting another jump out for the now-4yo mare considering she’s resuming from a 71-week spell, regardless we must follow her.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Bendigo, Race 2 - EXTREME EMOTION (+ APSARA)

This is a race with some horses that probably shouldn't still be maidens - it is open and can make a case for a few of these to win.

FORBES was 4th to General Beau first up before competing in the Group 2 Danehill up the straight at Flemington, dropping back to maiden grade here. APSARA ran well first up after a 71-week spell and only the one jump out, just being done on the line to finish 2nd.

Ratings wise, APSARA brings in the best last start benchmark rating at +3.7 while FORBES brings in the best peak benchmark rating from his first up run behind General Beau but his latest run didn't rate quite as well at +9.5.


We're glad FOR REAL LIFE was scratched, allowing us to beat him in another race instead. EXTREME EMOTION debuts on the home track and has had some super jump outs in preparation for this. She draw's lovely with barrier 1. Not to mention, the name of the race is "Kym Hann Racing Maiden Plate"... we're sure Kym will be looking to win his own race at his own track!


We were keen to be with EXTREME EMOTION as our main bet at a medium confidence level in the early markets. Hopefully a few were able to get the $5 on Bet365 (have been told some even got the $14 opening price on Bet365...), which comes down to $4.15 after deductions. For those that didn't, look to play at the Betfair SP or Top Tote on TopSport.


Canterbury, Race 3 - ZARASTRO

He was a ~$7 second favourite in the Brian Crowley Stakes on Saturday against Able Willie, but was scratched and now pops up here for his first up run after some very (!) impressive trials. Our trial blackbook comments are as follows:

  • Sep 28 (Rosehill) - this Coolmore colt looks smart and that debut 2nd to Paulele reads really well now - was a $1,050,000 Magic Millions buy - had a trial 6 weeks after that debut and split Profiteer and Hilal - ridden with no urgency out of the gates, taken back and was throwing the head around wanting to go on with it but the jockey wanted him to have a quiet time - got gaps in the straight but was never asked for an effort at all - moved super well.

  • Oct 11 (Rosehill) - he’s smart, very keen to follow - jumped super, straight to the front and was way too classy - if he goes to a maiden first up, would be surprised if he doesn’t win.

We would've much preferred a MDN rather than a BM68 but do think he can run well regardless. Barrier 1 looks a lovely draw but ratings wise, a few are ahead of him but he's only had the one run. We just don't want to be diving into the $2.40 available this morning so we'll look to have a medium confidence bet on at the Betfair SP.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.50 units.


Bendigo, Race 2

EXTREME EMOTION ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $5.00 (Bet365) OR 2.00 units WIN at Betfair SP.


Canterbury, Race 3

ZARASTRO ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP.


Overall: - 1.85 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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