BlackBook - Wednesday, 26 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 26 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
RANDWICK - Race 1
#6 KAZOU (9) - C Waller
KAZOU was good in her first trial back on Sep 20 when 4th - she was slowly away to settle at the rear of the field but was super in the straight as she closed very quickly to finish only 3L off the leader while doing her best work past the line. She went around again over 900m in Trial 11 on Oct 4, again slowly away but this time around midfield before pressing forward to be a clear leader as she approached the bend before then opening up a huge 6L+ gap on them to win very comfortably in the second fastest time of the morning. A Zoustar filly that was a $200k buy from the 2021 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sales, she looks very talented and certainly keen to follow her into a debut.
KAZOU was given a very quiet hit out in Trial 11 having been scratched from a lot of races over the past couple of weeks due to wide barriers. They’re obviously keen to kick her off the right way and while this trial didn’t have the ‘star’ looks about it like her previous trials, watch past the line as she goes back in front so it’s exactly what she needed to have her primed for her debut. Very keen on her, she’s smart.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Randwick, Race 1
#6 KAZOU (6) - C Waller
She's finally drawn a single digit barrier!!!!! With that tick over trial last Friday, she will be primed for her debut. Excited to see how she goes here and she looks the clear horse to beat.
If she runs to her trials, she will be awfully hard to beat - her stablemates haven't shown the talent she's shown at the trials and we're quite confident she'll get it done here.
The ~$1.90 looks about right, so we'll play ½ now and ½ late/SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Bendigo, Race 1
#1 POTATO PETE (1) - R Goodwin
We're having a throw at the stumps here second up for Reece, a $50k Maiden considering there are only 10 acceptances and no real standouts. We get $1k for finishing last, so considering he was a $8.5k purchase, we're happy to have a crack.
He is stepping up to 1100m (which suits) and coming out of a chute as Jordan Childs thought he'd be much more suited to that type of racetrack as he's such a big boy. His jump out at Pakenham was on a wet track, so it should be no drama's here and he will probably appreciate it a bit more than the synthetic.
We're not confident (he's hardly a betting proposition), but we're still hoping he can pop up for the prize money as an owner! (plus he was $51/$16 in early markets...)
Last Updated: 7:38am on Wednesday, 26th October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 694x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.17 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1041x runners | 248x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.21 WIN $3.03 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 30x runners | 20x wins (67%) & 6x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 48x runners | 6x wins (13%) & 16x placings (46%)
Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):